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Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Nov 14, 2020.

  1. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    Musk is a name that's talked about too much and without specific nerd engineering details that he and his collegues are focused on. Instead we apply all the traditional billionaire big ego type personality cult following on him and we need to eschew that kind of orientalism mindset. He's a brilliant engineer, but not a very charming or enigmatic person.

    As for Toyota's "strategy..."

    My impression is the strategy is to act like they don't care about Tesla's disruption and that it doesn't matter and fossil fool cars are never going away solely because Toyota lacks a high enough valuation in the investment markets so they can't raise the funds they need to replace all their factories with advanced battery and drive train manufacturing, which requires far fewer parts then ICE engines, as well as far more advanced engineering at scale. And because they can't do that, they can't defend their market share as all new vehicles rapidly shift to electric by the end of this decade. So they pretend it's not going to happen.
     
  2. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    Can you provide information about this interesting sentence, source?

    So Toyota sells almost 2 million hybrids annually, you have missed that?

    I presume you think that rapid shift is happening right now.
    Ok, but remember this year 2% of the new vehicles sold worldwide are/will be electric.
    How fast will it grow? Best predictions are needed, but you can consult Energy Outlooks and other data.
     
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  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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  4. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    It's good to read the thread thoroughly... Post #4 and #5 both have this link:
    TOYOTA NEWS #103|"The customer will choose": Vehicle electrification strategy for decarbonation - Selections from Toyota's 1H/2Q financial results Q&A session

    which leads to this graphic: insidetoyota_103_1.jpg

    Investors don't care about how many cars you're selling today, that's where the previous batch of investors make their money... Investors will throw down tens of billions on new factories if they know a decade from now they've made a profit every quarter from a wise long term investment. And granted Toyota was poised for success with Hydrogen innovations 8 years ago before electric cars were seen as feasible at scale. But then things changed.
     
  5. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    A more recent, peer reviewed paper got posted in one of these threads that was predicting 2030 for when electrolysis will equal steam reformation in cost. Now, the cost difference has come down to the point where green hydrogen might be successful in a niche market.

    As for which is more efficient, that is just part of the energy loss in getting hydrogen into the car. There is the energy in liquifying or compressing the hydrogen for transport, and then the energy to compress and chill it for refueling at the station. Once in a FCEV, a PEM fuel cell might be 60% efficient. These are far greater losses than the conversion losses of charging and discharging a battery.

    The author of that blog didn't see FCEVs having much chance against plug in cars, and thought the hydrogen made would likely go into efuels like methane and methanol for energy storage.
     
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  6. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    ergo - 4X less efficient than refilling a battery - which - in the case of home PV Solar .... virtually no line loss in the 25' - 35' from panels, to inverter, too the EVSE. On an upbeat note more & more of the supercharger stations are backed up wirh battery & solar - so as to reduce grid use as the network grows.
    That would be a funny irony if hydrogen could ever grow to a point where are they'd need massive compressor & chillerss for bigger quantities of cars would need backup which I could buy from Tesla.
    .
     
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  7. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    That can explain Prius being made from scratch 25 years ago. Every year, consistently since 1997 the hybrid share is taking its place, and growing.
    What will happen in 25 years from now?

    That answer no Tesla shareholder wants to know, because most are short sellers or fresh buyers.

    You haven't answered my question, though. Stock value itself says nothing about the capability of performing changes or investments.
     
  8. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    For starters, peak sales of Prius happened in the 2007-08 time period and have been declining ever since. The hybrid market share is no longer growing but declining... Electric cars have stolen that market at an unprecedented rate. just look at how many pre-order their are for electric car companies that haven't even started rolling cars off the assembly line.

    And we aren't talking about stock value itself, we're talking about a companies valuation, which determines how much a company can borrow/fundraising, this isn't directly about how much stock they sell or the price of the stock.

    And it's entirely false to say of Tesla shareholders that "most are short sellers or fresh buyers." When in truth the short sellers were destroyed by losses because the negative view of Tesla that's been well funded by fossil fuel kingpins finally fell on their face and lost big because Tesla quickly went in a successful direction in the past 18 months. And when it comes to fresh buyers, that's just people who don't make money on investing because they're late to the party/behind, rather than ahead of the curve.
     
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  9. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    In places with higher gas prices, hybrids are making gains.
     
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  10. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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    That's also why Toyota became the strongest most dominant automaker just as the economy tanked a dozen years ago... This next round of global economy tanking is not going to be as easy.
     
  11. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    #31 telmo744, Nov 22, 2020 at 8:08 AM
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2020 at 8:15 AM
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Calm my Prius friend. Some posters get a little anxious so use "ignore user" for relief.

    Bob Wilson
     
  13. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    We don’t use the metric system in the USA. Are you just trying to inflate the distance with KM?
     
  14. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Bob has sound advice.
    You buy hydrogen by the kilogram.
     
  15. PriusCamper

    PriusCamper Senior Member

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  16. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    Telmo is in Portugal. Bob is being considerate.

    Like I am when I have to convert everything to imperial and memorise the conversions to make things easier to read for you.
     
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  17. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Make that 2012-13:

    prius by year.JPG

    Other relevant items:

    US-HEV.JPG

    upload_2020-11-22_22-1-24.png
     
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  18. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    true - especially during that decade. Now, with the R&D paid off on hybrid tech, hybrids are a form of a poor man's electric (motor assisted) car. That's in no way derogatory, too. A little bit of air poisoning here & there, it all adds up.
    .
     
    #38 hill, Nov 23, 2020 at 7:51 AM
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2020 at 1:03 PM
  19. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    So you admit that hybrids are an electric car that never needs to be plug in! ;)
     
  20. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Corrected above
    Besides ..... this is a charging thread
    and .... poor man's electric ASSIST - not $60k-ish unsubsidized cars
     
    #40 hill, Nov 23, 2020 at 1:06 PM
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2020 at 2:23 PM
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