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VW says, fuel cells stupid for the next decade.

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by austingreen, Mar 16, 2013.

  1. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Actually it doesn't have to mean that . . . I mean - if we're going to do the baseless speculations thing - we could just as easily suggest that the stations have issues because there has been a failure, due to not maintaining the stations properly & that this is just a prelude of things to come.
    But in reality - since that's just our 2 suppositions - we really aren't saying anything, right?
    ;)
    .
     
    #81 hill, Oct 1, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2015
  2. finman

    finman Senior Member

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    I thought I'd have to wait for H2 to fail for passenger cars. Turns out it fails with every passing day versus simply using the electricity to travel down the road. Which many are doing...TODAY! Why, again do we look to waste and be inefficient? oh that's right, we are not the smartest species in the world. but, damn, we look like we care. If we can't use our brains to get H2 out of the system, then we are doomed. and Oil/Gas will win. How can smart, rational people dispute the numbers here? yep, it's money that clouds the physics and math. another fail for us humans.
     
  3. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Not everyone can live with an EV, you are assuming everyone has a way to charge over night. Many people in USA live in apartments or Condos that don't have access to plugging in over night, FCV and Hybrids must be alternative options.
     
  4. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Or terribly under-utilized. Did they take the peel plastic off the displays?

    Bob Wilson
     
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  5. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I agree that perhaps they should have waited for the cfcp, cec, and carb to get their act together, but when I look at the first 57 stations, many of those existing and planned only 7 appear to provide fast fueling for more than a couple of cars in a row.
    Station map | California Fuel Cell Partnership
    http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/ab8/ab8_report_2015.pdf

    These stations are not old stations. Only 4 existed before 2011 without retrofit, and the oldest is 2006.

    If you look at th 2015 report above maintenance has been an issue, and they are going to allocate $100,000/year for the first few years to each station so that it is properly maintained and doesn't just shut down, as many hydrogen stations have in the past. After 3 years if the cars aren't there, they may need to pay more, or let them shut down.

    I can't just paste figure 17, but when these first 57 are in happy operation, the vast majority will only be able to fill a car at a time then need to presurize before the next fills.

    15 can supply 100kg or less of fuel a day, averaging 74kg. These need to rest after each fill. They can't fill many cars a day. These can probably do cars in 15 minutes each if the come on top of each other until they use up the fuel, but that averages less than 19 cars a day if they use 4kg each, before they stop for awhile to make more fuel or get it delivered.

    Only 7 are 200 kg+ stations (average 350kg/day) designed to fill more than a couple cars in a row at a fast speed.

    That means even after these "modern" 57 are built there will be waits if cars arrive one after the other. That's one reason the money only provides 86 stations at the end of 2021. If they are successful, many of these 50 slower stations will need to be upgraded, hurting the ability to build more. This is still a work in progress.

    Of course if there are only 1000 cars for the 57 stations, those capacities and speed are probably fine.
     
    #85 austingreen, Oct 2, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2015
  6. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    Of course hybrids will be part of the answer. But since they seem to max out under 4% market share, we need a better solution to pick up the slack.
    As for apartments and condos, those are more of a challenge for plugin owners, but not a show stopper.
    Apartments and condos are installing car chargers, as are work places.
    And they are doing so much faster than hydrogen pumping stations are being built, or are planned to be built in the near future.

    I don't believe hydrogen s any part of the solution for personal transportation.
    I do believe it is part of the solution for renewable energy storage, and possibly fleet vehicle services.
     
  7. dbcassidy

    dbcassidy Toyota Hybrid Nation, 8 Million Strong

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    Me thinks VW got bigger problems currently and in the future to worry about than "stupid fuel cell".

    Sorry, I didn't really want to hijack this thread, but given the current "Diesel Gate" VW created, I have to chime in.

    FCV, like all other technologies, will grow and evolve.

    DBCassidy
     
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  8. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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  9. El Dobro

    El Dobro A Member

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    They need something to replace all those TDIs. ;)
     
  10. finman

    finman Senior Member

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    right, nowhere to go charge. That's a good one. No one local is using Elon's Superchargers. Nah, that isn't happening. (sarcasm)

    So in that regard one in an apartment STILL has to go re-fuel with hydrogen! It's the same thing. Only physics says it's 3 times more efficient to just shove the Supercharger electricity into a battery than go with hydrogen and transporting it and storing it and high pressure tanks and pumps. And, please. 3 minute fills? one car? then wait for things to re-pressurize? that is ridiculous. Gees, it gets more complicated than gasoline! Or at least the same and THAT's what gas/oil companies want.

    Not everyone can clearly see what an energy loser Hydrogen is for passenger vehicles.
     
  11. fotomoto

    fotomoto Senior Member

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    Agreed that is the current situation but as long as a car has a place to park, then an electrical connection is possible. This is not a complex issue for engineers to solve rather it's more of an electricians assignment of running wiring and a receptacle (or wireless pad) after apartment complex owners and condo HOA's get on board once they see it will increase the value of their properties and make them more attractive to new customers/tenants.

    Apartments here often include free, unreserved parking but charge for covered/reserved spots. It's easy to see them charging (pun not intended) a few bucks more for a reserved charging location.

    Most, but certainly not all, apartment dwellers around here tend to be on the lower end of the economic scale so an expensive FCV is really not an option. Large urban centers where apt. life is more the norm are different.

    City street parking is probably the biggest hurdle for EV charging since you'd be dealing with local governments.
     
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  12. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I think for now this thread should be dead again. My OP was in march 2013, and many of the potential problems VW was predicting look more likely, and with the sucess of the model S and low gas prices the low potential sales through 2023 seem all but assured. Lets check back in 2017 and see how California is doing compared to the current plan. Most of the rest is pointless speculation.

    In 2017 we could see some big battery and plug-in breakthroughs and continued low oil prices, which would push out further the promise of volumes of fuel cell cars.

    Or we could see some technical breakthroughs that bring costs down, and higher oil prices, that make fcv future brighter than it looks today. Either way I think we should continue to spend on fuel cell r&d, and closely monitor the commercialization tests in Japan, Europe, and California. My guess is a decent volume of fuel cell cars are a decade away and always will be, but I'm hoping that I am wrong.
     
  13. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

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    While touring the Netherlands, I noticed that every single canal berth had city electrical connections, no matter how old the city or canal berth. It's only hard till someone realizes money can be made providing what folks will want. Then problem solved. Even governments want money.
     
  14. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    Oh yea, you must be right, and Toyota, Honda, GM, Mercedes, VW and others got it wrong, what was I thinking?! ;)
     
  15. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    You do raise a good point, since we live in the Orange bubble, EV's, FCV's are costly for the less fortunate in this country, how does one buy the new Model X at $135,000? And before you say you can get a Leaf for $20,000 something, you need be able to have the credit to lease or buy one. I think growth of EV's and FVC's will always be a very small percentage, at least until more used models come to market and prices drop.
     
  16. orenji

    orenji Senior Member

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    You are incorrect in stating that apartments and condos are installing chargers. Condos will allow an Owner to install a charger at their cost and when they move they must have the charger removed at their cost. Associations do not and will not pay for the installation of these chargers. So it is not that simple to have a charger installed. As for apartments this is even harder, as owners of an apartment complex will not spend the money to install chargers and many apartment residents don't have the money to spend on the charge install. It really will take legislation to have chargers installed at the time of development in the future.
     
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  17. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    No, I am not incorrect. Some apartments and condos all ready have. Have all? Of course not, but there are multi-housing units that already have, and others planning to.
    All I am saying is you can't use blanket statements indicating that none are, or that no owners of apartment complexes will spend money to install chargers.
    Since some already have, I don't see why you conclude none ever will.

    The ones I refer to are in Minnesota. They are under no regulations or laws to do this, or to even allow tenants to do it. They are doing it to attract business.
     
  18. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Speaking of making blanket statements...

    Drawing a conclusion already that hybrids maxed out is premature.

    Only now are other automakers working to deliver competitive offerings. Their participation is required for serious market expansion to occur. Up until this point, they've been mostly just watching Toyota to see how far the technology can be taken before investing on the grand scale themselves. Sure, anyone can make an expensive hybrid. Making one that is able to compete both in terms of cost, reliability,efficiency, and emissions is an entirely different matter.

    There's the economic principle of change to acknowledge as well. The general population waits years to purchase new technology devices. That's the way it is. They don't spend their money until the next generation has proven itself. For vehicle purchases, longer use-life and higher price-tag means decades of waiting. They expect product maturity before making a change. In other words, when the automotive industry shines their spotlight on plug-in offerings, it will indicate that hybrids are ready.

    This is why we thought the Volt enthusiasts as crazy when they expected sales to be competitive just 2 years after rollout began. Coming from a Prius background, we already knew there was a decade wait for it to even be considered a viable purchase choice. Sure, the technology worked, but ordinary consumers simply wouldn't be interested yet.

    Gen-4 of Prius will be the first to reach out into middle-market, hoping to attract buyers here who would otherwise just purchase a Corolla or Camry. That's a hefty goal, but it's a big step contributing to the shift away from traditional offerings. Reaching out to those buyers is vital, since the cars they purchase is where a bulk of the business-sustaining profit comes from. That's what will pick up the slack, not a better solution.

    As exciting as the newest technology is, it won't pay the bills. The so-called "boring" vehicles do, since they use refined older technology... which is produced in high-volume at low-cost... which makes it better.
     
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  19. dbcassidy

    dbcassidy Toyota Hybrid Nation, 8 Million Strong

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    Great, If I need an apartment with charging capability, Minn will be the state for me- Not! Blanket statements are true - very little, if any are installed at apartments coast to coast.

    Tiny, spotty apartment locals as you mentioned don't even make it on the radar screen. The expansion of charging stations are at a snails pace. Sought our reflects the picked up sales pace of the Volt.

    DBCassidy
     
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  20. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Apartment installations are misrepresented anyway.

    You get the impression there will be at least one charger available per tenant. In reality, there's only a very small percentage installed. It's like the ramp I park and plug in at. There's roughly 1000 spots available, but only 6 have chargers.

    There's also the problem of upkeep & liability. Snow removal and ice buildup is a very real problem here. Plows cannot just push snow out of plug-in spots like they would for others, since the charger is in the way. Having to carefully move the snow elsewhere is more expensive and time-consuming. Who's going to pay for that?