What’s Better: A Fully Electric Car Or A Plug-In Hybrid EV?

70% is too conservative. I would say 50% would be a better number. With the recent polar vortex, people are only getting about half the range they usually do. Currently have a 19 Leaf and previously owned a 15 Focus Electric.

 

Yes, a BEV or PHEV is the only car you could buy that will pollute less in 5 years.

 

I have a speculative question...and it is a question not a statement of fact.

But given that all major automakers be it Toyota, Honda, GM, Ford...are still primarily vested into the manufacture of ICE vehicles, I wonder if some of the "slowness" or hesitancy to promote full electrics, doesn't come from a fear of them rapidly becoming superior?

Imagine if a strong infrastructure for recharging did exist?
Imagine continued improvement in battery technology, supporting increasing range and battery durability.

The idea of fueling up, and driving an ICE becomes more and more like cleaning out the barn stable, and feeding the horse, while your neighbor parks the new Model T.

The truth is, even the most advanced ICE today, operates on rather primitive standards. The "C" stands for combustion. Combustion means fire, gas, heat, and all the inefficiency inherent in that reality. You can obsessively change the oil, and maintain an ICE and eventually it is going to wear out. There is no way to avoid that reality.

While it seems to me, if you apply any decent level of quality to a full electric vehicle, you could make one with a much longer and durable life-span. No combustion. Far less moving parts, far less belts and pulleys. Tesla IMO has revealed on one level, how little performance compromise needs to exist in any comparison between ICE and full electric. In fact arguably Tesla has shown advantage.

But is that possible durability and superiority actually something automakers fear on one level? Whether they admit it or not?
Yes, at this point all batteries come with a built in life span. But even in these rather early stages, you are looking at 8-12 years plus. Plus if mass production happened? I think you'd see the cost of replacement become more and more palatable. I think we have seen that already to an extent today.

I'm sorry this turned out to be numerous questions...and some statements mixed in. But they are thoughts that surround my thinking about the future of personal automobiles.

 

It is situational. I am now down to one car, and plan to get an EV in the future. A PHEV should be the best option, but those have compromises that make them less than ideal for what I want out of a car. The Camry is the compromise now. I actually preferred the Sonic for my commute, and regular driving. The Camry had more space for the trips I regularly take to North Carolina, while only slightly worse fuel economy. Plus, it was newer.

The Prime is ideal on paper. I even thought it looked better than the Prius. The interior was just a let down for a second try from a major car company. If I'm getting a hatchback, I want a full hatch. Then my commute is 60 miles, and would like to have an EV range that covered most of it. The Volt would do that, is only a little smaller than the Prime, and likely has more comfortable seats for me, but both are less roomy than the Camry. I travel with a medium size dog and geriatric cat. The Clarity has Camry space, and the small gas tank won't be much bother since I'm making stops for the dog and myself.

However, I would like to get a boat one day. Friend has one that would be perfect, but we estimate its tow weight is 1700 pounds minimum. At least a 2000 pound rating would be best for it. The upcoming Aviator PHEV should work, if weren't likely priced higher than I want to pay, and less efficient than what I'd like for my commute. Then I'm estimating the annual miles I put on the Camry will go over 18k.

So two cars may be the better option. A small BEV for commuting, that will have lower maintenance costs by having smaller tires and not needing unnecessary oil changes. Then something larger, more comfortable for the trips that can tow. It doesn't need to be the most efficient option, because of the few miles it will rack up in a year.

I read the price would be approaching $9000 once it meets US regulations(don't forget the tariffs too).

GEM has been around for decades, and might have the options that meet your needs.
Polaris GEM Electric Vehicles
And the other small EV manufacturers and custom shops out there.

I only do that when I get 40 or more cents off gas with store rewards.

There are EVSE's(chargers) made for exterior use Even with a garage, many BEV owners opt to get one for faster charging anyway.

I'd recommend a hard wired one for the outside. Exterior outlets have to be GFCI. There are all weather covers for them, but why risk it getting tripped for something that will be plugged in all the time?

A BEV may already have an equal total ownership cost to an equivalent ICE car in Europe today.

I think will see more BEVs with a series hybrid range extender in the future. Mostly an ICE at first, but then other options, like Al-air batteries and liquid fueled fuel cells.

In another thread, I recently posted maps showing that the 'average' plug in has the carbon emissions equivalent to a 40mpg car on the dirtiest grids in the US. The most sold BEV, the Model 3, is also one of the most efficient, and it at least matches the Prius in those emissions, IIRC.

There are other pollutants to consider, and I think coal is the worse. However, it is easier to address those at a few thousand stationary sources, than millions of mobile ones, if there is the political will to do so.

An oil company(Shell, IIRC) recently bought a charging network one in Europe.

I once came across a discussion on DIY EV conversions. When deciding on range, and thus battery type and amount, there was a rule of thirds. You want enough range that a third covers your daily trip out, a third for the one back, and a third for side trips, detours and weather. It's what I've been using to judge potential BEVs for myself.

Colder regions may require more allowance in that final 'third'. At the very least, I'd stay away for BEVs without an active thermal management system for the battery. You want something that can warm the battery beyond just the level for safe charging.

I think they do fear it on so level, US dealers certainly do, but these are also large companies. Switching to something radically different than their current product isn't easy. There are the past investments, and not just financial ones, that need to be addressed for this change to occur. Part of Tesla's success comes from them not having such ties.

 

Thanks for the advice. Yeah, who knows what the final price is going to be on this NEV with all the trade war talks. If it cost $9000, no brainer. I will look somewhere else. BTW, I checked the link on Polaris GEM. The only utility option that will provide my need is this one.
GEM eL XD | Polaris GEM Starting at $13799, it's no bargain. I don't even know if the price includes public road legal options. I did not look much further after seeing the starting price. At that price range, I will be better off buying a very reliable used pick-up truck.

 

I think the problem is that trucks and SUVs are big money makers for auto makers, and that's what most Americans want to buy. But if you electrify them, they need huge expensive batteries that make the price point unappealing and/or cut into the nice profit margins that auto makers enjoy. If battery prices continue to drop we could see some progress. A crossover SUV version of the Model 3 would be incredibly successful, I imagine. Sedans are the least useful style of car, there's no reason for them to exist.

In my opinion, two cars is the best solution if you have room. For not much more money than something like an Outlander PHEV or Crosstrek Hybrid, I can have a Prius Prime and a used SUV (say, $10k), which gives me better efficiency than either of those for most of my driving, and more space than either of those when I need it.

 

Someone needs to come up with a recreational trailer, outfitted with it's on large battery , that would use its electrical connection to supplement the car's internal battery pack.

We add power packs to our smart devices all the time. Why not build one into a recreational or utility trailer? Your main car Tools around like a normal commute, but when you want to tow or travel your trailer or RV has a battery pack included with it.

 

The opposite idea, an electric car with a gas powered trailer, has been tried.
Rav Long Ranger

 

First do a personal, requirements analysis. Then pick what meets your needs. For example, mine:

1. Mandatory - TSS-P or equivalent, safety driver assistance.
2. Mandatory - 1,000 mile in 24 hour range regardless of route.
3. Mandatory - seats wife and luggage.

Everything else is optional:

• EV range - sized for large Southern town.
• Gas MPG - 40 MPG to Prius performance.

Bob Wilson

 

You mean BMW i3?

 

It's very simple - if you always plan to stay in-town or near-town, an EV is great. If you plan to travel around the country, a PHEV is vastly superior because charging infrastructure is slow and not very available in many parts of the country, while gas stations are plentiful and super-fast by comparison.

 

And a hybrid will make most sense if you have no charging infrastructure available where you live or work.

Petroleum based cars will include towing and racing.

 

All of that would be true, if batteries didn't suck. But they do suck - badly. They are over-weight for the energy they store, they have short lifetimes, they are extremely expensive, they are hard to charge quickly, and they lose a ton of efficiency when they are cold.

"It's the battery, stupid" was a great article name from long ago about this problem.

 

I don't deny their are challenges and improvements that are to be expected and needed.
But I don't if it's fair to say batteries "suck badly".
Apples and Oranges, but with my Prius which had the NiMH battery, it was warranted for 150,000 miles or 10 years, in my CARB state. And I fully expected to at least get that lifespan and durability. My observation from years of Prius Chat participation is that most Prius owners get at least the lifespan of their warranty with many exceeding that time frame significantly.
And that feedback is primarily from the older battery technology of the NiMH.

Batteries weigh...what they weigh. You need the components you need to operate any machine. Internal Combustion Engines are heavy. Transmissions are heavy. As a chemistry based component of energy storage, I don't think a typical HV battery is disproportionately heavy for it's purpose. If part of evolution is lightening them up? I'm fine with that. But I don't discount batteries because they are pulled on by gravity.

Expensive? Yes. But I've also witnessed the cost drop. And I would expect if the popularity and total number of electric vehicles made and produced ever became mainstream, those costs would continue to drop.

Charging speed, range, and efficiency loss in cold temperatures are all challenges. But I'm optimistic that improvements in these areas can be made, whether directly as a result of improved batteries themselves, or with the adaptation of surrounding technologies as of yet unknown and un-applied.

I think the key words in this sentence "It's the battery, stupid" was a great article name from long ago about this problem. " are FROM LONG AGO.

Maybe I'm being too optimistic about what is possible or what will become possible but I do think full electrics are the future. But it could be technology or a combination of technologies not even yet popular known or discussed. That is a Hybrid configuration different than Battery and ICE.

So I agree and disagree. Challenges, imperfection, evolution still needed on various levels including charging infrastructure and availability and acceptance? Certainly. But I'm optimistic enough to believe at some rate...we someday reach a personal automotive/transportation reality that isn't petrol and combustion based.

 

Well, let's do the comparison.

Energy density, 250Wh/kg versus about 850

Lifetime, ICs can and do last 50 years or more, batteries more like 8-15.

Recharge rate, a full charge in an hour versus a full refill in a couple of minutes

Cost, EV battery for 300 mile range is around $20,000-$30,000, IC for a 450 mile range is around $5,000.

IC engines are nearly 100% recycled.

Make a battery with an energy density of 800Wh/kg, a recharge rate of 6C (10 minutes), a lifetime of 20,000 cycles and 30 years calendar time, near 100% recycleability and a cost of $30/kWh and batteries won't suck anymore.

 

You have to admit, he has better odds than you do of making an IC that does not pollute and does not use fossil fuels.

 

No, that's not true at all.

We already make biofuels (and could make more), and the best ICs are already extremely clean, and could be made cleaner if we chose to do so. It would actually be faster to switch the transportation system to 100% biofuels than it would be to convert the grid to 100% renewables (remember, I've spent my career doing wind energy research and I'm a power engineer specializing in power electronics and electric motors/generators so it's not like I'm opposed to EV's and renewables). This is because the averages lifespan of a car is 14 years and the average lifespan of a power plant is more than 40 years.

I've been hoping for good batteries since 1986 when I got into electric model airplanes running on 1200mAh sub-c Ni-Cd's. Those eventually became 2400mAh sub-c Ni-Cd's, ultimately replaced by (currently) 3300mAh Li-Po's. Better by far, but still not very good, and wouldn't be practical if we didn't self-limit flights to 6-15 minutes, excluding gliders. In fact, the model-airplane market is a good analogue here. Smaller planes, such as I fly, have almost entirely switched from glow-engines (methanol and nitro-methane fueled two-strokes) to electric powered by Li-Po's, but the larger planes are now almost 100% powered by gasoline engines. This is because batteries big enough to fly the bigger airplanes are so heavy and expensive that most people aren't willing to own the several sets you need to fly a lot on a given day (I usually say you need a minimum of 3-sets to fly most of the day). And our Li-Po's can charge at 3C - 3 times faster than Tesla batteries.

 

My Prime:

 

That's some pretty cool data. Did you manually collect it or is there some way to get it from the Prime directly?

 

The Prime provides it, but it only keeps 32 days in memory, so I've been manually collecting it and typing it in since I got the car. I had to do some processing on it because it provides it in a slightly different form, and of course I had to combine it with the weather observations from my city.