What does Peak Oil look like?

Interesting to see this written. BOTH car makers had the publicly-stated goal of mass production of EVs. They both made this one model, and stopped making them just as soon as they didn't have to keep making them. And by "just as soon" I mean the day after the mandate was squashed, the Rav program was terminated. GM could quit far soon since it got in the race sooner, and fulfilled all of its requirements. If Toyota can take on a project like the Prius... sell for a loss at first and then make up the difference later, it sure has heck could have done the same with a battery EV... if it had wanted to. From a short-term business standpoint, I don't blame these companies for what they did in the least. For the health of our planet I sure do! But that shouldn't be totally on their shoulders. The consumers need to take a wee bit of responsibility as well.

True enough - and here's to hoping that you are correct!

 

We've got a professor here at Case taht is really big into the "Peak oil crisis". And while it is definately a problem, i think the bigger problem is that no one really knows exact numbers. By that, i mean we don't know if we've hit the peak, or when we will. Different "experts" claim we have, that it's 5 years, 10 years, or even 20 years off.

As it is, the world is using more and more oil every year. With the recent rapid increase in China's infrastructure, the amount of opil required will increase even more.

One thing that is clear, however, is that we need to start the switch to alternatives now. There's a company near here that is going to start producing huge Hydrogen fuel cells for industrial use. The nice thing about the cells is that one of the required fuels for it (don't remember what) is considered a waste product for several industries. Now those companies can just pump their waste into the cells, add a little oxygen and hydrogen, and not pay an electric bill. nice.

If you ask me, the biggest concern with peak oil isn't really the polution we are generating. instead, it's whats going to happen when we start to run out. Imagine what would happen if America suddenly didn't have any gas. There would potentially be riots in the streets. All in all, this could potentially lead to a direct confrontation between the major powers on the globe for the remaining oil, as whoever has oil essentially has the power to fight/protect themselves. It's a scary thought to imagine countries hurling missiles (maybe even nuclear) at each other because some polititian can't go without his gas guzzeling SUV.

 

This is the quandry I found myself in. What does my wallet vote really mean when I buy a hybrid? I've voted for EV all that I could (having leased/purchased three production EVs) but by the time I could get in on the action, the end was already written in stone. My vote really didn't count, though I still feel good about putting my money where my mouth is.

So now I have another vote... and my best option is a car that burns infinitely *more* gasoline than my last car. Does my wallet vote then mean that I'm happy about moving back to gasoline for my next vehicle? Does Toyota see my vote and say, "OK, we're doing just the right thing! He really wants this care more than the EV. He wants a great car that burns a bit less gasoline than a "normal" car. We'll keep going down that track, and maybe figure out how to make the car bigger and more powerful next year since he's happy with this kind of gas consumption. Or will the folks at Toyota read between the lines and think, "ah, he obviously wants nothing more than to burn as little gas as possible - that's why he bought a Prius instead of a Tundra. He would have bought an EV if given the chance. At LEAST a PHEV.

Right now my vote can only be cast for a gasoline vehicle, so casting my vote for the most efficient one is the best I can do. But if I had a choice to vote for an EV, that would get my message across a lot more clearly!

It all depends on where you're coming from, I guess. My angle is quite different than most, and I realize that. I'm NOT your normal consumer!

 

I'd have to get a gun to protect my EV... and possibly even my bicycle!

 

Oil has always risen in price, but this recent price jump has really started to crimp peoples' budgets. Thus, the hybrid was spawned, and more and more people are purchasing them.(Demand: need cars that are more fuel efficient. Supply: Hybrids).

The next price jump(due to pick one: Iran invasion, House of Saud revolt, or just plain India/China hyperconsumption) will push people to the plug in high battery storage EV/hybrid, as it'll be more cost effective to run off the grid. Just like Ericgo said.

Electricity demand will go up and so will cost. Alternative/renewables become more cost effective. Large companies scale up renewables to profitability. Car companies scale up high battery storage hybrids to profitability. Hydrogen/fuel cell power patents collect dust. Renewable energy era goes into full gear, human society lives on, at least till the next big meteor.

 

Though I would accept EV as the standard for vehicular transportation(as I have excess solar credits doing nothing), you can't expect GM and Ford to do it just because it's right. It has to be right monetarily. That's what America and corporate capitalism is all about. GM and Ford took the quick money via trucks/suvs and now they're getting their comeuppance. Toyota and Honda looks like they have the option to go EV via the hybrid bridge. If the money isn't there in EV, then we'll have a long hybrid chapter. BUT, the EV option will be that much closer. We'll see how the market sort it out.

 

Mid 60's is when the smart guys in the back rooms of the energy policy committees figured out that the world only has so much oil to give. One day it will run out. During this time, we were just peaking our oil exploration and had rampaging oil development in Texas and other American interests.

Some bright boy said... I think we should slow down our own oil production and begin to import oil from other parts of the world so that one day when those other parts of the world run out of oil, we will still have some in the ground right here at home.

So, we started to import and slacked off of domestic production under the disguise of liberal environmental concerns. If you wonder whether this is really happening or not, check last years vote on oil exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife refuge.. Oh.. bummer, missed it by 2 votes.

Somewhere about Y2k, the Arabs may have been counting the gold bars in the pile and realized that one day their oil will be run out and all they'll have left is a bunch of hungry people who are wonder what's for dinner. Maybe that would be a good time for the US to buy back some of those properties that the Arabs are buying with the oil money today. I'm not sure what their secondary industry will be once the oil is gone, but, there is a limited amount.

Once theirs is gone, we're still here, we will have to learn to use less, but we won't be 'out'... not yet... Time to go drill in the Arctic wildlife refuge.

It's not a perfect plan, but if you're a fat rich american, (and, you are), you are part of this plan and part of the problem. Once the oil is out, we'll be doing a whole lot better off than the arabs, but things will be rough. I'm sure China and Russia have huge untapped oil reserves. Hopefully they will develop those to keep themselves going.

In the mean time, the US needs to work on other plans. How about building 25 new, state of the art nuclear power plants. Bring the cost of electricity down in the major cities (NYC, Chicago, LA, Boston, etc..) to a level where we use electric for heat. Figure out a place to put the left over junk... I'd suggest exploring a way to launch rockets to outter space from a platform located 100 miles out into the ocean so that if the rocket has to abort, the payload doesn't land on dirt outside someone's house. But, send it out toward the sun or somewhere and let it go. Our science and materials are 30 years newer than our newest nuclear power plants, we should be able to make a pretty good rack of new ones.

Google Montana Govenor Coal Diesel

And you'll find a guy who can make a significant dent in the amount of diesel we can create from enormous coal beds in eastern Montana. There is a lot of eastern Montana.. All just sagebrush and cows...

I don't think it's an accident that we have huge oil imports right now, and the last 30 years.

 

Man, I like talking to you guys! I'm so used to just being kicked into a corner and told to shut the hell up so we can continue down the path of least resistance, increased horse power, and bloated "family trucks."

Group hug!

 

This is the future as I see it. Oil is going to go through the roof. Not necessarily because there will be significantly less of it, but because China/India are going to become american-like in their consuming habits. They are consuming more because they are getting richer from our walmart/target/made in china/teleserviced in India consumption. If only 10 percent of this tandem consumes like america in the next 10-20 years, then that will be equivalent to another american consuming nation. America already consumes 25% of the earth's natural resources. Can you imagine another?

I think this will facilitate the peak oil phenomenon. I doubt we'd go to war with china or india over oil. Though if Jeb Bush were president 10 years from now when this starts to come to a head, I wouldn't be surprised if a Taiwan/China conflict weren't conjured to give us a realpolik situation to justify future oil procuring adventures(that is if we're out of Iraq by then).

Any hoo, for tomorrow the prices of energy will allow renewables to competively scale up production. I see solar being akin to broadband services and cell phone. Initially expensive, but now many can't live without it. Banks will love to finance a entire new industry, solar loans. Why not, yet another cash cow for them, especially when solar becomes the norm. Fixed loans over 20-30 years for solar become basically the same as a monthly payment of an electric bill. And more and more americans will see plugin hybrids as a viable option to the $5-6 per gallon of gas, just like the hybrid phenomena of today. This in turn will snowball the demand for solar. Unlike oil, there's an abundance of silicon(sand). Just not so many companies yet to refine them into panels.

So some will see peak oil as a glass half empty, I see it as a glass half full. Some companies are going to make bank off of this fact. That's why I'm invested in all these aspects.

GE and BP for large renewable conglomerates.
WFC is a bank that gets decent profits as they rape their customers.
WFR to get the silicon out of the ground, into panels.
ESLR and DSTI if you want pure solar plays.

 

There isn't any alternative that is independent of oil that can really take its place. The only thing we can really do is to conserve what is left. You sound like you're on the right track but the most pressing problem that we have is that most people, even people who conserve, don't realize just how dire the situation is. Once the majority of people understand the predictament that we're in, we may be able to avert major crisis but, unfortunately, most people are a day late and a dollar short when it comes to being ready for a disaster.

 

"Dire" is a relative term. There's "dire" in the sense that we have to pay so much for oil and oil related costs that we can no longer sustain the relatively extravagant lifestyle of your average american. And then there's "dire" in the sense that you are a polar bear and the polar ice caps were melting. One "dire" results in not being able to go to disneyworld annually, and the other "dire" results in your needing to eat your newborn for food.

The latter may occur, but if it doesn't I'm not thinking that things are going to be dire.

 

We won't go to war with China or anyone else over oil. The cost would be ionosphereic (stratisphereic being too low). Whether oil has peaked or not the cost of alternatives will be WAY lower. Even if prices don't change (of alternatives) the price would be WAY lower. It would be cheaper (financailly/short term) to Fischer-Tropsche all of our coal into oil than to fight China. I hope that that's not the path we take. That would be horrific. The PHEV-to-EV path is the most logical. That's probably where we're heading. C'mon, even Bush has learned the acronyms. Even if he doesn't believe what he's said or wants it to happen... he said it. Pandora's box has been cracked open at the least.