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What does Prius mean for personal transportation?

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by tochatihu, Aug 11, 2014.

  1. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    A few folks here will be interested in my opinions. More useful things will come up in discussion I hope. Finally, the great PC group may arrive at some sort of synthesis about where this thing began, how far it can go, and what might follow after.

    First, a disclaimer. I bought Prius in 2001 and turned it over to a new owner in 2007 (still in service :) ). I know more than a little about the NHW11, but the newer versions are beyond me. Others here are the experts. I don't even drive a car any more. I live in China and use bike, bus, taxi and commercial jets.

    But I will seed the discussion by claiming that Toyota made a large initial investment in hybrid technology, and they have stuck with it. Having sold some millions of units and presumably they are making money. Honda was another early player (Insight was superb!), but they left the field.

    Hybrid cars have weathered all sorts of media storms (real and imagined). Perhaps the most telling evidence that those storms have passed is that hybrid technology can now be found in expensive 'performance' cars. Did Toyota catalyze that?

    Hybrid cars have always been limited by battery technology and they still are. But batteries will get better, and I suppose the endgame is pure EV, with 'acceptable' ranges and recharging times en route. That would mean that cars can stop carrying around fossil C and hybrids will later be seen only as a bridge technology.

    I am sure that Toyota is very proud of developing and (one might say) perfecting the hybrid drivetrain. Impresses me too. But what say PC posters? What is good or bad? Does less than fastest 0 to 60 make you feel sad? Anything else?

    For me, keeping the Prius gas engine in its happy place is a big deal for allowing the downstream catalysts to do their job to achieve SULEV. There is certainly high fuel economy as well! Diesels can do that, but they are not easy to make SULEV.

    One more seed for discussion. Toyota has not put this technology into other platforms (vans or pickups). Would that be desirable? I think they should move to smaller vehicles because that is where the global vehicle market will expand. But this means Asia and Africa, where service is, um, behind the curve, so the drivetrain would need to be pretty much bullet proof.

    Short postings have never been my strong point, so I apologize here as well.
     
    #1 tochatihu, Aug 11, 2014
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2014
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    "tochatihu, post: 2052647, member: 1392"
    A few folks here will be interested in my opinions. . . .

    I believe you first told about PriusChat back in the old GreenHybrid and Prius_Technical_Stuff days.

    First, a disclaimer. I bought Prius in 2001 and turned it over to a new owner in 2007 (still in service :) ). I know more than a little about the NHW11, but the newer versions are beyond me. Others here are the experts. I don't even drive a car any more. I live in China and use bike, bus, taxi and commercial jets.

    The new ones improved pretty much everything. Not perfect, at least an A- (it still needs 1.5 kW inverter, tow bar, and safety options for all trims.) Like riding a bicycle, easy to pickup again.

    But I will seed the discussion by claiming that Toyota made a large initial investment in hybrid technology, and they have stuck with it. Having sold some millions of units and presumably they are making money. Honda was another early player (Insight was superb!), but they left the field.

    Sad to say, Honda didn't carry forward with aluminum bodies and aerodynamics. Their big mistake was the IMA. Had they put it in the transmission, independent of the engine, it would have been a much better architecture. However, the new Honda Accord hybrid looks very promising . . . competitive with the Fords and enough to take some market share.

    Hybrid cars have weathered all sorts of media storms (real and imagined). Perhaps the most telling evidence that those storms have passed is that hybrid technology can now be found in expensive 'performance' cars. Did Toyota catalyze that?

    It was inevitable as to meet any modern efficiency and emissions, there really was no alternative. So the F1 hybrids, McLaren P1, and Porshe 918 are all awesome driven in part by the rules/law changes and the awesome advances in light-weighting, aerodynamics, and integrated power systems.

    Hybrid cars have always been limited by battery technology and they still are. But batteries will get better, and I suppose the endgame is pure EV, with 'acceptable' ranges and recharging times en route. That would mean that cars can stop carrying around fossil C and hybrids will later be seen only as a bridge technology.

    Although the labs continue to provide a lot of interesting options, the Tesla shows reasonable range in an efficient car can be engineered . . . today at a price, 3x. I too see EVs as likely when the Leaf achieves a 150 mile range for a reasonable price. It converts an 8 hour, day-trip to Nashville into a night-over avoiding 4 hours of driving in one day into 2 hours up, an overnight stay, and 2 hours back. But we'll still be a two car family because doing 1,000 miles in a 24 hour period and towing still looms in my future.

    I am sure that Toyota is very proud of developing and (one might say) perfecting the hybrid drivetrain. Impresses me too. But what say PC posters? What is good or bad? Does less than fastest 0 to 60 make you feel sad? Anything else?

    Although no one has claimed it, I see the signature of superior math model and genius . . . in 1994-95. In "The Prius That Shook The World," they report having looked at nearly 50 different architectures before selecting the one that became the NHW10. Then a lot of 'lab work' separates a brilliant design from an actual product and that rates right up there with the math model. The industrial engineers made it affordable, only a 30% premium over ordinary cars. The Prius is an example of what sustained, continuous improvement can do when applied to every aspect of corporate practices.

    As for acceleration, our NHW11 has never felt inadequate any more or less than our old minivan, station wagon, or VW microbus. My ego is not a function of stuff but expressed in what I contribute . . . 'value added engineering.'

    For me, keeping the Prius gas engine in its happy place is a big deal for allowing the downstream catalysts to do their job to achieve SULEV. There is certainly high fuel economy as well! Diesels can do that, but they are not easy to make SULEV.

    The 'elephant in the room' are diesel mileage and emissions in urban driving. Humans continue to migrate from rural to urban areas and that means smaller and fewer opportunities for highway versus urban driving. One can ignore the inevitable at their own peril.

    One more seed for discussion. Toyota has not put this technology into other platforms (vans or pickups). Would that be desirable? I think they should move to smaller vehicles because that is where the global vehicle market will expand. But this means Asia and Africa, where service is, um, behind the curve, so the drivetrain would need to be pretty much bullet proof.

    I think so but I'm not privy to the math model. The Highlander Hybrid has demonstrated the power plant needed for a utility vehicle, medium pickup, or a cabin-frame body that can be customized to specific missions. Light weighting the body and that would be a way to reduce fuel costs.

    It is hard for me to model the developing world but somehow I suspect fuel and operational costs are important there too . . . especially as the migration from rural to urban, mega-cities continues. Perhaps they'll do a better job of public transportation and minimize wide-spread, personal car ownership.

    Hybrid, fuel-cell, and battery powered buses remains another hard problem. I don't get the impression they have been a great success. It is an area where mechanical, regeneration on paper makes a lot of sense.

    Short postings have never been my strong point, so I apologize here as well.

    I'm home with a head cold that is trying to become something else so I have time.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #2 bwilson4web, Aug 11, 2014
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2014
  3. The Electric Me

    The Electric Me Go Speed Go!

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    Toyota has referred to hybrid technology as being a bridge technology, and recent commentary would suggest they look at the long term end game as possibly being in the fuel cell arena.

    That being said, I personally feel that as long as our culture, society, economic infrastructure and transportation system as a whole is still dominated by fossil fuels and the operation of ICE vehicles? Then I think the Hybrid is a great "bridge" to be standing on.

    Honestly? In a little over a year of owning and operating a Prius, I would say I'm more and more impressed with how much The Prius is NOT in any way a compromise. I actually like the way the Prius accelerates, runs, drives and operates better than almost any vehicle I have ever owned. The few times I have been away from my Prius for various reasons and "forced" to drive a regular ICE vehicle, the ICE seems strangely primitive.

    In short....Toyota has built a wonderful bridge.

    As long as reliability in all other arenas is good, and The Prius has that reputation, then I'd say about the only arguable drawback is the Hybrid Battery and the inevitable failure that must come if you keep the vehicle long enough. If you accept this, and even plan for this eventuality? Then I love The Prius and Hybrid technology.

    I'd love a Hybrid Truck. If they could ever do it, in a way that made any utilitarian sense. That is efficient but also capable of providing enough torque and power to actually haul things of tangible heft. Toyota does NOT recommend The Prius pull anything. For all it's wonder, that might be HSD's biggest achilles heel. PS. I know many of you DO haul and pull things with your Prius. My guess is that the weakness of HSD in actually being able to do so, is why we don't have a Hybrid Toyota Tacoma or what Toyota would inevitably name The Prius T...for truck.

    The other "dream" product I would like to see, is perhaps a hybrid that is more performance based. A two seater roadster, with fun to drive capability and also hybrid efficiency. Something along the lines of what I think Honda was reaching for with the CR-Z. Which I really like, but it's just not efficient enough to me to justify the hybrid addition. Someone at work owns a CR-Z and maybe because we are both hybrids, they seem to like to park near me. I actually think the CR-Z is a great looking vehicle.

    If you could give it some "Zip" along with a moonroof and/or a convertible? I'd be driving my Prius in tomorrow as a trade in. I'm almost thinking of a Hybrid Mazda MX-5.

    In any case, I really have no disappointments in my Prius HSD experience. I did NOT buy it expecting lightening fast acceleration, or incredibly nimble handling.

    Oddly...I too am at home with a evil chest and head cold.

    So if I'm rambling more than usual or drifting way off topic....I blame...Nyquil!
     
  4. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    I feel that Toyota deserves the Nobel prize for developing hybrids...and maybe we have to add Honda re: Insight. Prius is a full service no excuses practical everyone car with space and decent power and 50 MPG and home power during an emergency. The only thing it doesn' t do is print money, but in a way, it does, but not enough.

    The issue is that the add'l cost of making a more expensive car with 2 engines does not necessarily pay out relative to the cost of crude oil. Local, national tax and incentive policies on fuels and cars determine if the car makes overall sense. Toyota has a hit with Prius, but the long term picture is less clear.
     
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    wjtracy, in what Nobel category? They don't do 'environmental' I could see an Inamori Kyoto prize for advanced technology. But Inamori generally looks outside Japan. They make their own decisions, based on ??? .

    In a rational world :) fossil-C burning would be correctly valued in terms of indirect costs. Any vehicle technology that got the most 'done' for the least burn would be honored. It would include simple, small, boring cars, Prius, diesels, and others.

    Some of those (including Prius) would be honored for getting the nitrogen-oxide emissions down. It is a local, urban thing with human-health implications. NOxy does not have a long downstream footprint. Because rain.

    I appreciate comments above about Prius as a bridge. But, a bridge to where? How might global personal transportation look, 50 years in the future? How much will it depend on better batteries, how much on end users making good decisions?

    Firstly, Mercedes made cars. Ford made cars generally available. Does Toyota with Prius deserve to be considered at the same level for making cars 'better'?

    Where are we going? Where should we go? Why?
     
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Where are we going? Where should we go? Why?

    As a species, we are digging up and burning fossil fuels as fast as possible. This has been critical to both world population growth and our standard of living:
    • ~2.5B in 1950 (born in Dec 1949)
    • ~7.1B in 2014
    Furthermore, food mono-production and open travel means historical, mixed bags of pests now have huge, uniform crops to consume and rapid, inter-contential transportation. Pandemics have and are likely to continue in the future. If is not if but when will one significantly reduce our species population. Then there is a nuclear genii.

    Where should we go is a much, much harder problem. Individuals often can't see beyond the reach of their knuckles. There is an amazing ability to see tribalism over other loyalties including our species. But world-wide communications has mostly improved.

    Our species has an extended childhood where we transfer/teach our culture and knowledge to the next generations. So I think the best approach is to automate teaching to allow students to proceed at the pace they can handle and no longer lumped by birth year. Those who have trouble meeting some age driven schedule, special help is certainly merited. But for those who have the skills and ability to run faster . . . let them. That is what automation in education all the way through undergraduate degrees can and should do. The emphasis should be teaching kids to how to learn and let them map and master their ignorance.

    I also like the idea of breaking tribalism barriers by having kids leave home for other places. Younger kids to family members and older kids to 'skills camp'. If at all possible, some place that speaks a different language long enough that the kid learns conversational skills. Tribal exchange is how we might erode (or enforce) tribal bias. So if we can't send the kid, at least have them master conversational language of another tribe, especially the more hostile ones.

    Bob Wilson
     
  7. cproaudio

    cproaudio Speedlock Overrider

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  8. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    How many personal vehicles are their now? (not only those with 4 wheels)

    Anyone seen projections for about 30 yrs hence? That would be the fleet we might try to describe.