What steers your vote? Check your car

An amusing theory.

The election will go to the side that manages to motivate its supporters. On each side there are die-hards who will vote and who will not be swayed by any form of reason, evidence, or developments. And we are told that the undecideds are few. But there are lots of folks who nominally support one candidate or the other, but who are not motivated to vote because they do not care that much, or believe their vote does not really matter.

Three things put Bush in the White House last time, and number 3 was the most important:

1. Outright electoral fraud in Florida: Election officials systematically denied the vote to 5,000 elligible black voters.

2. The electoral college system, which denies any representation whatsoever to the minority side in each state. And, most importantly:

3. The Democrats failed to motivate their own supporters. They managed this difficult feat by nominating a dull candidate who was unable or unwilling to conduct an inspiring campaign.

And they've done the same thing again. Kerry quibbles with Bush about details: Kerry (so he says) would have conducted this illegal and unjustified war "differently." He'd have pursuaded more countries to assist, he'd have sent more troops, he'd have planned better for the aftermath. Kerry would be a bit better for the environment and a bit better on women's issues. He'd make health care a little bit less expensive (so he claims). But he's smack-dab beside Bush on too many of the issues that traditional Democrats consider important, and so they are not motivated to vote.

On the other hand, a large number of progressives are so angry at Bush that they are working hard to get out the vote. The election will be determined by their efforts, and how effective the republicans are at pulling off electoral fraud. The new player this year is Diebold, a big Bush supporter, and manufacturer of the new voting machines, many of which leave no paper trail and use software that has not been tested independently.