Who Might Buy Diesels?

About 11 months ago, Polk had this press release:

Source: Only 35 Percent of Hybrid Owners Buying Hybrids Again, says Polk - Polk - Company - News

Together, these articles explains why VW has backed off on their diesel vs Prius ads . . . their theme in 2009. But there is one thing missing from the year-old hybrid story.

A year ago, if a Prius family needed:

• space for a growing family -> 'Prius v'
• commuting car -> 'Prius c'
• all purpose -> 'Prius hatchback'

The Prius family expansion should have retained more Prius owners and looking through the 'Prius v' and 'Prius c' forums, it looks like that is happening. But I suspect the retained, former Prius owners are a subset of the 'new to Prius' owners. Meanwhile, the earlier NHW20 and occasional NHW11 provide an entry path for new owners.

Bob Wilson

 

if it was as quiet, clean and non smelly as a prius, and got better mileage... edit: and made by toyota.

 

Yes. We are currently driving a gas car ('04 SAAB 9-5 wagon), and it looks very much as if to get the fuel efficiency we want in a new car, it's either going to be a hybrid or the Passat diesel. Until you drop down to cars that are way too small for us, you can't get real-world 40 mpg highway. We drove the Prius 'v', all other Prii having a huge center console sufficient to preclude me from even pretending to drive comfortably. It was nice....but I haven't reconciled myself to taking that kind of performance hit. Maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't.

 

That's a pretty easy conclusion. Hybrids have a tiny market share, and diesels get worse city milage. Its a pretty hard sell, versus the much easier, less oil more torque sell.

Polk needed to put a big asterick by that, except for prius drivers, as was discussed previously. What can we do with the statistics? Previous hybrid drivers are more than 10 times likely to buy a hybrid than a non-hybrid driver. A lot of the problem is choice.

You may want to check out the camry hybrid which will accelerate faster than your saab. You may also want to include the c-max in your test drives, which although it isn't as fast, may have better handling. I can't call the passat tdi a bad choice though. Any of the three will get better milage than the 9-5 by a great deal.

 

For towing and hauling, a Diesel can't be beat! I'm talking Superduty, which I owned for the last 13 - 14 years. It is a pure delight to drive and tow the m/c trailer and the slide in camper. If I was in the market for a new pickup (which I am not), it would be another Diesel powered Superduty. They and the engine are built to last.

DBCassidy

 

Diesel torque is a real selling point. Quoting power figures that only occur near the red-line are irrelevant to the way we actually drive.
Carry a big load up hills and the extra torque means that your economy won't suffer as much as for a petrol engine revving its ring out.

A colleague drove around Australia, first by petrol 4WD, which was wrecked in the middle (not far from Wolf Creek) and then by diesel 4WD. Despite same model, similar age and condition, same terrain, same load and same caravan, he recorded 17-18l/100km (13-14 mpgUS) petrol but only 12-13l/100km (18-20 mpgUS) diesel.

I chose a second-hand Prius over a new Passat diesel with start-stop and a form of regen. I soon realised that my driving doesn't need the torque... but I could see a use for it if I were further up the alps.

 

They need another pair of asterisks for the fact that it was only 35% because of the quake and tsunami. Ignore the affected quarters and the long-term trend was much closer to 40%.

They need a triple-asterisk because it's based purely on trade-ins so, and ignores the fact that significant hybrid sales didn't begin until late 2003 and therefore there are a lot of households that haven't yet felt the need to replace their first hybrid.

As for diesels, the answer is anyone who drives any significant number of miles who isn't driving a hybrid and some who are. Now that GM, Mazda and Chrysler-Fiat will be introducing more diesel vehicles I expect diesel sales to grow significantly and gradually expand. Just as happened with hybrids, initial sales will lead to further growth. I think diesel has greater potential than hybrids.

Nothing will beat gasoline for low mileage drivers, but the most important thing is to get the high consumers out of conventional gasoline vehicles.

 

I know Polk's survey had a lot of problems but I find it hard to believe it was off by that much. The reason I say this is I remember seeing an earlier survey that claimed a substantial number of used Prius came from owners who went with a different, non-hybrid car. But being an old man, let's call this "I heard this rumor" and look for empirical data (I'm already sorry I mentioned it.)

If it turns out to be something from CNW Marketing, the Automotive Institute . . . well it might as well be from Bob Lutz or the current GM hybrid-haters.

I think the industry term is 'capture ratio' a measure to which a model takes buyers from another manufacture or model line.

Bob Wilson

 

Overall numbers were close to 40% ignoring the quake quarters. According to the survey Toyota Hybrid owners had 59% Make loyalty (although not necessarily hybrid repurchase) Industry make loyalty is 49%. The survey numbers would include owners of the next best selling hybrids, the Honda Civic Hybrid (which has seen sales collapse from early years) and Ford Escape Hybrid (which Ford stopped manufacturing in 2012). There are segments that either don't have hybrids or where the hybrid premium is extremely high. The survey is examining a segment that's only grown significantly in the last 10 years and since it's based on trade-ins ignores hybrids being handed down. It also doesn't say anything about the reasons for vehicle replacement. Hybrid sales are increasing.

Putting it all together I have reason to think the 40% figure is fairly misleading and the true "buy-another-electrified-vehicle" rate is actually closer to 50%.

 

Do note that the hybrid market was hit with a supply shortage in Q2 and Q3 caused by the Japanese earthquake and tsunami.

 

Which is a big deal when fuel costs over $8 a US gallon.

 

Vdub and the other diesel manufacturers tout torque because torque is all they have over hybrids. If it mattered to enough of the market, hybrid cars would just add tech to trounce diesels in torque, too.

 

This got me thinking of a Miller-Ackerson cycle Diesel engine coupled to a PSD. That would be very interesting.

DBCassidy

 

No its not like the CNW report, but it got presented poorly in the press release. The highest customer loyalty right now is Ford with around 61%. The prius owners bought hybrids at a rate of 41% in 2011. That is not a bad number. It was also likely driven down by Toyota dealers hiking prices because of the tsunami, and Toyota's reputation tarnished by its handling of unintended acceleration. 60% of prius drivers stuck with Toyota in a bad year for them. Now many on this board think the prius is perfect, and the hybrid is the greatest thing ever. The numbers tell most prius owners don't agree. Most of those trading them in didn't get anywhere near epa mileage (they bought on the old epa), and compromised to get the excellent fuel economy. If you believe the hype, the number should have been above 70% even in a bad year. Most prius drivers did not see a good hybrid choice outside toyota. The hondas really have suffered, and the escape was a very old design, the fusion expensive. 2013 the c-max and fusion look to be giving those fed up with toyota more of a choice to stay with a hybrid.

Those sales to people trading in other makes are called conquest sales. Hybrids have a high percentage of conquest sales, which is a reason the prius helped Toyota so much.

 

You are comparing 'hybrid' to 'Ford', during a Tsunami year that hybrid production was curtailed.

At least attempt an apples to oranges comparison; at the moment you are at apples to pine cones.

 

Your reading comprehension is pretty poor here. I am saying the best loyalty is ford. Prius owners stuck with Toyota with 60%, which is very high customer loyality for toyota, along with the camry (33% repurchase another camry). Given the lack of hybrid choice outside toyota, You would not expect prius owners to be much higher than 41% hybrid retention, given toyota's high hybrid market share, along with other factors. Prius market share is too low for much higher rates. Honda hybrid repurchase at less than 20% though is very bad. Hybrid civic owners didn't move to toyota, but decided not to purchase a hybrid again.

 

Polk does a lot of credible work, source data:
King of the Automotive Conquests: Hyundai Sonata - The Polk Blog | R. L. Polk & Co.
Dated from 2011, this is the only example I've found. Still, it shows the Prius capture/defection ratio, 2.42, is second highest on the list.

Ford Earns Top Marks In Polk Automotive Loyalty Awards; Volkswagen Named Most... -- SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Jan. 15, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --
These appear to list only the award winners without a scale across all models. It would be more helpful to see capture/defection ratios for all or at least the top ten models.

I can almost relate since the first leg in our 2003 Prius delivered 39 MPG and briefly thought it was broke. But I used the rest of that trip to map mph vs MPG and found the 'knee in the curve' at 65 mph. But this was well within the speed parameters I am comfortable with.

We keep looking at the user reported, MPG numbers, and relative passenger and luggage space.

I test drove a Ford Escape and thought, still do, it was a good, small, SUV hybrid. I don't get that feeling from the CMAX. The accelerator is too twitchy and internal volume seems 'off'. For example, I can load my wife's motorized chair in her 2010 Prius but the CMAX seems smaller for that task.

This is where I'd like to see a list of the top conquest / defections like the 2011 year. Better still, the full list.

I suspect the CMAX had an initial high conquest rate, we see that in the monthly sales, but from the complaints we are hearing, I suspect defections are going up . . . fast. Conquests are good but defections can be fatal.

Bob Wilson

 

Like I said, when you drill down into the 2011 prius numbers, and understand the context, the numbers are pretty good. They do though wipe away any prius euphoria that it is so good that customers need to buy anouther.

I'll give you some numbers to put things in context. For retention, a buyer buying the same vehicle that they traded in, Silverado led with 39% last year, F-150 had 36%, and camry 33%. Because Ford sells such a high percentage of F-series, this number really spikes its loyalty numbers. You also get a fairly high number of defections, simply because the volume of F-series is so high. Camry and prius help increase Toyota loyalty.

It seems fairly natural. There is reporting bias, so take numbers with a grain of salt from fuel economy.gov. The 2004 gen II prius originally said epa 55 mpg combined, reported 47.4. The 2004 cvt civic (non-hybrid) originally said epa 37 mpg combined and reported 39.8. Someone choosing the prius for fuel economy over the civic still got it, but much less than expected from the stickers.

There are indications that people chose the prius over a bigger or smaller car, simply because of fuel economy. These folks, if disapointed about fuel economy were likely to switch. With the new epa sticker and expanded choice, we can expect prius loyalty would increase.

I've seen the c-max swallow a lot of stuff with a split seat folded down. If you need the whole back seat, and don't stuff to the roof, the prius can swallow more, but I normally fold down for bikes. Prius is plenty big to hold 2 bikes, folded down.

I'm sure you can get it, but you will have to pay. I would be more interested in 2013 with more choices and lower relative prices (prius c, camry, fusion hybrid, c-max).

I think the c-max has some of that same problem with advertised mpg. It seems like a good car. Ford needs to change its marketing. I doubt there will be high defections if expectations are properly set.