Why gas engines are far from dead

Remember we unified the units between gas and electricity. The Model 3 gas efficiency is the kWh converted to gas gallons.

So we can now calculate the relative cost of energy for either gasoline or electrical kWh:

• $0.11/kWh (local HSV rate) -> $3.71 / gallon of gas
• $2.25/gal (local HSV rate) -> $0.067 / kWh

This tells us the cheapest power is electric which makes sense. The utilities operate their generators at the most optimum, thermodynamic efficiency. The utilities are also getting 'free' renewable wind and solar power that happen to come online during the daily peak loads. There are a couple of late afternoon hours when expensive 'topper' generators come online but they don't run during the middle of the day as much as they used to.

Bob Wilson

 

Just to be clear, I have absolutely no argument against EV being more energy efficient than gas engine cars. And I do favor transition to 100% BEV and being independent from fossil fuel. However, the economic of the BEV vs ICE cars are still not in favor of BEV in many areas in the world and even within the US. There are places where the gas is being sold at less than $2/gal now, and there are places where electricity is charged at above $0.30/kWh. I just don't know which way the price will swing for either form of energy. When I bought my first hybrid vehicle back in 2012, gasoline in our area was close to $4/gal, but it is now below $2.30/gal. Electricity rate has not been as volatile as gas price, but I have paid as high as $0.275/kWh to as low as $0.16/kWh in the past. Unless I can be self-sufficient on producing my own electricity, either gas or electricity, I will be dependent on energy produced by multi billion dollar oil industry and/or government controlled utility. In this volatile market environment, I would rather have energy choice to run my car. That's one reason, I favor PHEV over simple HEV, gasser, or BEV.

 

Don't think it's been mentioned: "refueling" an electric-only vehicle is currently much less convenient.

 

That is true,

EVERYONE has the option of a gas pump all over anywhere they go,

NOT EVERYONE has a super charger at the parking spot, home or such.

You can add in.....YET......but not yet

 

Ah contrare,

I refuel every night in my garage, much more convenient than a gas station

 

Yeah, that's where plug-in hybrids bridge the gap.

 

Well,
Unless you’re going on a very long trip,
You could have 300 ev miles in your garage every morning

 

Currently (pun not intended) we have a "free" nights electrical plan that covers most driving and around $2/gal for gas when that runs out. Our PHEV's have the ability to "recharge" at approx. 700 miles per MINUTE on trips with no real range or temp anxiety as they have a backup plan for such "emergencies". Up front costs: the smaller size Model 3 equipped to our specs was in the $50k range while our Clarity base model with both state and federal incentives came in at $19k + ttl.

Charging infrastructure is still sparse where I am and also where I need to drive for family trips (work, I rent) so non-Tesla BEV's simply aren't considered ATM. YMMV.

 

i here it'll be the same time frame - & then there'll be millions of hydrogen cars on the road. That'll keep the fossil fuel industry humming along, what with needing cheapest fuel for reformation - & some useful place to burn it.

.

 

The Camry isn't in the Model 3's segment. That would be the BMW 3 series and Mercedes C-class. Those both start over $40k. The Lexus IS and ES start between $38k and $40k. To get performance similar to the Tesla from a Toyota would mean getting a Supra, and that is nearly $50k.

Tesla's direct competitors have premium on the fuel label.

There are parking situations between garage and street. There are also exterior EVSE available. With most homes having a driveway adjacent to a structure with electricity, home charging is possible for many.

The engine in the Camry is 41%, but that is the peak efficiency rating. While a hybrid can run the engine at that peak point more often than a plain ICE car, it is still just a portion of the time that the car is being driven.

 

If not, then what BEV is?

 

My first tank in our 2003 Prius came in at 39 MPG. My first thought was ‘It is broke, take it back.’ Then ‘how did a government bureaucrat achieve 52 MPG?’

The rest of the drive I mapped mph vs MPG and got my answer. After the first three months, I consistently got 52 MPG highway and urban. I tested but never signed up for ‘hyper milling.’ Still don’t.

If you drive a Prius like a Jetta TDI, you will be disappointed. If you drove a Prius like I drive my Tesla, you’ll also be disappointed. But that is why I do benchmarks and study how the car works AND OPERATE IT PROPERLY!

If you want an excuse to stay with a ride, you have my blessing. If you are curious how to operate my Tesla, I’ll be happy to share. For example, recharging on a cross country trip:

1. Night before charge to 100% and precondition car 30 minutes before leaving.
2. Drive to far Supercharger: stop first at fast food for bathrooms and a sack meal; drive to Supercharger and plug-in and; eat sack meal. When done, you’ll have enough charge to reach next Supercharger. Clean up and deposit in beverage drive through.
3. If sleeping overnight, use a motel with a charger and repeat.

There are variations but that is the basic pattern.

Questions? Quiz on Friday.

Bob Wilson

 

The Ioniq Electric is the closest I can think of at the moment. The 2020 got a bigger battery, so price increased.

Here's the thing. Tesla sold over twice as many Model 3s than BMW 3 and 4 series in 2019. They outsold the BMW annual numbers in the US going back to 1980, when the first 3 series arrived. So even with the price difference and inconveniences of charging, many people that normally would have bought a Camry or similar bought the Tesla.

Tesla Model 3 US car sales figures
BMW 3-series & 4-series US car sales figures

 

And next to no one is buying Ioniq's, hence the title of this thread. Right now the choice is still basically Tesla or nothing.

 

I'm disputing that ICE's are far from dead, just the similar arguments once used against the Prius and other hybrids.

 

Bottom line: Batteries are (still) expensive.

When that no longer applies and is reflected in real world pricing/choice, the old way will collapse quickly.