Win a Million Dollars

I suppose you can't prove stupid drivers.

Tom

 

Dmitri Biller can do it! He has 6,000 stolen documents and no doubt one of them includes the secret accelerator flaw that has been hidden for so long.

Bob Wilson

ps. A lawyer with a last name of "Biller?" How weird is that!

 

Hi Tom,

With regard to the subset of unintended acceleration incidents where extensive brake damage has occurred, would you attribute those to stupid drivers? This would require the driver to simultaneously depress both the brake and accelerator pedals over a prolonged period of time.

The IEEE article is very interesting as it has links to other stories, especially a Washington Post story that details what tests NHTSA will perform on a Lexus suspected of unintended acceleration.

At least NHTSA is getting around to testing one car. To save time they ought to round up 20 cars that are good candidates for unintended acceleration testing (i.e., where brake damage occurred, which proves the driver depressed the brake pedal in an effort to stop) and start the testing routine on all.

Meanwhile, we haven't heard much from Exponent after they tested cars selected randomly. Will they ever test cars that are suspected of unintended acceleration?

 

Possibly. One could make the claim that the brake pedal wasn't pressed hard enough. I wonder what would be said if the brake pedal had been pressed so hard that it managed to break? THat the brake system was abused?

+1. If you want to re-create the condition, the most likely candidates for failure are those that have already failed once.

Yeah, it has been quite quiet of late from the Exponent folks. Curious minds wonder why. I will bet that if nothing had been found in all of the exhaustive tests, Toyota would have announced that circumstance.

 

FYI: This prize is discussed in another thread.

http://priuschat.com/forums/prius-hybrid-news/77148-prius-american-idol-edmunds.html

 

Well, if I found the problem and the fix, why sell myself short for $1 million? I'll bet I could get 100 X that amount in ... errr .... consulting fees ... from a consortium of plaintiffs' attorneys. Say, do you think I could get onto the next set of televised "hearings" ??

"Seeing is believing. You wouldn't have seen it if you hadn't believed it."
(unknown)

 

I suppose the floor mat issue could fall into that category. I've always been impressed by the utter cleverness of complete stupidity. People find ways to make things fail that would never have occurred to me.

Tom

 

Why bother, when we already all know it's divine intervention [or
lack thereof, as the NHTSA is about to find out the hard way]??
.
_H*

 

I'd be prepared to bet that those specific cases occurred due the non-standard,floating floor mats being trapped forward over the accelerator pedal but under the brake pedal, as was almost certainly the case in the San Diego Lexus accident, where the CHP officer and family lost it.

With both feet on the brake pedal, the floor mat did the work of compressing the accelerator to drive the throttle to the WOT condition. Since that car had previously been reported as defective, but no action taken, the brakes pads were probably marginal at best.

 

By putting a bounty out on the issue, you get everyone in the world focused on finding out what is happening. Bragging rights far, far, FAR exceed the $1.0 m motivation. It will probably be solved by some hacker in India.

IMO, the bounty actually is a good out-of-the-box idea. The Japanese engineers will have to eat some crow if someone actually collects the bounty, but the experience will help them develop some humility.

 

The other reason to offer a bounty is to demonstrate a negative. You can't prove that a system is not flawed, but a very large number of highly motivated people not finding any flaws lends credibility.

Other than the cost of the bounty, you can't really lose with this approach. If someone finds a problem you can design a fix. If no one finds a problem, then it is hard for anyone to say that the system is flawed.

Tom

 

Looking at it another way:

• the $1 million bounty is probably less than what Toyota is spending a week in just trying to find the problems & then devise a fix (as many engineers as they can free up; looking at what all the suppliers are doing; trying to coordinate efforts in Japan, US, and other countries; running test after test on parts and vehicles; etc.) ... that doesn't include lost sales or anything else -- just chasing the problem and a fix
• if a hacker in India finds it, Toyota will be over-joyed! It will be proof that Toyota hasn't known what the problem is and just been hiding it. They can do the humble apology and get on with life and lawsuits.

 

The problem could be a chip on the board. Maybe only a certain batch of chips made have the problem. But its not the floor mats and its not the driver, to many complaints, all drivers a stupid as someone implied.

 

Edmunds is funding the bounty, not Toyota. I wonder if Toyota offered a bonus or other incentive to its employees to find the problem?

I don't see how the discovery of a solution by an Indian hacker constitutes proof that Toyota did not know the solution.

The good news is that Corolla and Camry are sold in India, so a motivated Indian hacker has access to some of the relevant vehicle models.

 

Depending on where the defect is located, the cost to Toyota to fix it could be daunting. For example, if the defect is found to be in the hardware that hosts the ECU and Traction Control functions, I would imagine that replacing those bits would be a non-trivial expense for Toyota. If every car made since 2002 requires new hardware, that could erase the current balance in the Cash account on Toyota's Balance Sheet.

 

Sorry -- I missed Edmunds. Thanks.

But on the core issue, I guess our perspectives are different. At this point, a "solution" must be found. But, if it is found by the hacker, Toyota would recall the cars, fix them, and go on with business -- as have other auto companies with serious product defects (exploding tires; SUV roll-overs; etc etc). Yes, lots of egg on Toyota's face for not finding it first, but they'd still go right on with business, and it'll fade into the sunset.

The hacker's finding it doesn't "prove" what Toyota did or didn't know, but Toyota will say it didn't, and 99% of the buying public will eventually let it go. And, I suspect that Congress etc will let the issue slide after that. Any time spent on Toyota lessens time available to fight for pork-barrel spending in one's jurisdiction.

The worst case would be if Toyota knew the problem and/or solution, but not only hid it for years, but also -- right up to Mr. Toyoda -- lied to the US Congress and then was found out.

I see that last one as the killer for Toyota. If I'm Toyota, i'm rooting for the hacker.

 

Maybe they (Toyota) should up the anty? I would think an additional $10 m in the pot should have the desired result.... Every Indian software engineer would focus on winning the Toyota sudden acceleration lottery.