Winter Does Not Disprove Global Warming

its already jan 2014 and i have not seen any snow and for the time of year high temp ( 12C )
last few years it was nothing but snow snow snow but before that we even did not have any ( maybe 1 or 2 days ) for years.
when i was a kid there was always snow during winter and a lot of it.
then 10e of years there was no snow at all or just a little. ( like one or 2 days and light rain snow that did not stay but we did have cold winter temperatures )
past 3 years there was a LOT of snow.
and now winter 2013-2014 non at all, yet.

reason for concern .. i dont now but its different for sure.


bases on global warming i predicted this a few years ago when the first winter snow happend, but i am no specialist in that area.

 

hard winters are like low gas prices, changes the public's perception and makes it difficult to get anything constructive done politically. and so we wait...

 

The Core is starting studies for a deep water port here in AK ti handle the transArctic trafic. Its about time they started believing!

 

A single cold winter doesnt disprove global warming.But this could be the beginning of a 30-50 year cooling period as predicted by astrophysicists.
If cooling continues ,then global warming theory would certainly be proven wrong.
Actually the past 17 year hiatus in warming disproves the theory,being there is no correlation between temp and rising CO2 levels.

 

Of course (for those not living in USA) the reason winter comes up as disproof is because in USA we are experiencing an "Artic Vortex" cold winter this year, coldest weather in 20 years in many areas.

 

mojo@5 astrophysicists other than Penn and Livingston? I'm sure you remember our recent discussions about them.

Said it before, but sunspot # and barometric pressure measurements really stand out as our best long-term data. Better than thermometers, because those are not installed everywhere and measure more or less local things. So we'd best be looking. How about here?

SIDC : Sunspot data - Graphics

one of the nicer plots I've seen on the web. Notice 1800-1820* (approx) with three smaller SSN cycles (like the current one) back to back. An ice age did not occur, even with the lower CO2 at that time. The spots recovered subsequently. This is why I think the hunt for astrophysicists predicting 30-50 years cooling must (ahem) continue. I certainly appreciate your persistence and enthusiasm; perhaps less so the forgetfulness.

*1816 had other "issues"

 

1800 -1820 is part of the "Little Ice Age"which ended about 1850.Crop failures, famine ,plague were blamed on witches.
As for astrophysicists there is a settled science consensus.lol.

 

Does anyone else understand the potential effect of changes in the Arctic
Gyre, and that effect on weather in lower latitudes?

Bottom line, climate models hve always suggested more extreme weather, not just "warmer" weather!

Icarus

 

I am not convinced that we are seeing any more "extreme" weather in the mid-latitudes with the changes we are seeing in the Arctic, at least not since I've been involved with recognition of weather patterns (started receiving NOAA "Daily Weather Maps" in the early 1960s).

Granted, I haven't conducted a rigorous study, but just from casual observations there's no clear changes in upper flow configuration (which controls surface wx) that I can see. I know some climate scientists (e.g., Jennifer Francis of Rutgers) have suggested changes to upper flow amplification in the Northern Hemisphere with changes in the Arctic, but I still know of no meteorological theory which would suggest significant changes to the amplitude of the upper flow based on warming Arctic conditions.

Even the IPCC AR5 Final Draft notes that confidence is low with respect to changes in atmospheric circulation except for a likely shift poleward of jet stream positions (which WOULD be theoretically consistent with warming polar regions).

With respect to climate models, I've noted before that I have no confidence in them based on my experience with weather prediction (NWP) models. Even really good long-range global NWP models like the ECMWF routinely depict at 240 hours what turns out to be a totally unrepresentative pattern. They may be able to roughly handle average surface temps well into the future (AR5 says that climate models have shown "some degree of skill" in hind-casting temps out to 9 years; skill in precip no so much), but even that is still actually subdecadal.

I would like to see the outcome of running the ECMWF (the ECMWF has MUCH higher resolution than any of the climate models currently used) out to the end of 2015 (starting now), and seeing the results of how well it does in projecting temp and precip anomalies over the globe through that period. If it does a reasonably good job, I would be subject to "recalibration".

 

According to Piers Corbyn ,jetstream is controlled by Solar effect on the Earths magnetic field.
There have been many Earth facing coronal holes these past 30 days.

Comments from Piers
"Why so many storms? When
will they end?
December has been unusually stormy, as predicted in
WeatherAction forecast, in Brit+Ire, parts of Europe and USA (also
as W
-
A predicted) and around the world.
The reason is certain persistent solar influences and their lunar modulation
-
specifically a
swarm
of Top Red,
R4
and
R5
, weather action periods which have covered a much higher proportion of the
month (~2/3) than normal and the very active and wild Jet stream which is also related to the greater incidence
of
R4s
and
R5s
and Mini Ice
Age circulation patterns now dominating the world. Only WeatherAction can predict these
storm swarms and when they end.
This forecast tells you when.
The R periods and wild
behavior
of the Jet Stream are driven from above and are associated with extra and extreme changes in
electrical and magnetic activity above the stratosphere and in the ionosphere and the solar wind of
charged particles coming from
the sun and events on the sun itself**
**
Note.
Ideas such as 'temperature contrasts drive
the Jet Stream
' are totally inadequate to explain or
predict events. Such a picture cannot explain the
relationship between Earth weather and events in
the ionosphere, magnetosphere, the solar wind and
on the sun and the simultaneity of extreme storm
events across earth
and their ~coincidence with
(radio) storms on other planets. Indeed such a low
-
level Earth atmosphere centred view, notwithstanding certain feedbacks, is akin to suggesting the
movement of tree braches causes winds."

 

Ah, our old friend Piers Corbyn again...

Icarus

 

It is important to remember that one cold day doesn't disprove global warming but one warm day doesn't prove it either. The same is true for warm and cold years and the constant change every other decade from a "global cooling" panic to a "global warming" panic. The earth is a very complex system. We as humans have a plethora of ways of messing with that system. I grew up on Long Island. When I was born most major roads had trees on either side of them. Now they have strip malls with huge parking lots. Sea gulls fly over the thermals created by those patches of black. It is said that a significant amount of wind that normally went over the Long Island Sound has been reduced because of those thermals. I remember when coal plants were responsible for acid rain. Aerosols were once blamed for cooling back in the 70's. Then the earth itself, or the sun can always do things orders of magnitude greater than we can ever produce.

 

I couldn't agree with you more Bob. As usual the deniers pick and choose to fit their agenda. Out here in CA it's one of the warmest and driest winters on record, but that has conveniently been overlooked by the folks that think local weather proves/disproves global climate change.

 

Faunal urination practices? Huh?

I gave Tzor a like just because he needs some, and maybe will return to tell us just what all that meant.

Average annual rain pH in Cedar Beach, Suffolk County, Long Island was 4.4 in 2003 (first measurement year) and 4.8 in the most recent two years. To go further back we'd get NADP data from some other station not on the island. Is this something you are interested in?

Mojo, that big peak in SSN about 1778 (see my link) also happened during the LIA. The 3 slow cycles happened at its end right? In short, I am pleased not to be encumbered by this solar control hypothesis.

 

Im loving this global warming as well.
BTW Its the warmists filling the media with "record warming" stories to fit their agenda.What a myopic viewpoint.

 

I'm not. I'm craving some decent cold and snow for winter sports, but the eastern 3/4ths of the continental U.S. seems to be hogging it this season, not sharing with us.

 

I'm waiting for the French to go on about fine Swedish wines. 20 years? 100?