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Zenn again!!

Discussion in 'EV (Electric Vehicle) Discussion' started by DaveinOlyWA, Sep 2, 2009.

  1. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    Invest in companies building decentralized electric generation infrastructure! :D

    Actually, I think that is seriously a good bet. But I would not buy stock in just one company, because, as noted above, in an emerging technology many companies will fail. Maybe find a good mutual fund in alternative power infrastructure (wind turbines, PVs, etc.)
     
  2. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    You're right about many companies will fail. There were dozens of TV manufacturers in the 50s and by the 60s there were a handful.

    I'm hoping my PBW ETF PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy(ETF) - Google Finance
    will capture at least of few of the big winners.
     
  3. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    i think BP will thrive. and ultracaps will probably be MUCH more expensive than AGM's.

    i think the pricing will end up to be around 50% of comparable Lithium which still makes then a spendy upgrade. but keep in mind, in a small car, they will go 250 miles, in a bigger car, less. in full sized vehicles there will probably be two in many application (heavy duty, work vehicles, etc) but cost will limit that market. so charging stations will still be needed.

    i think it would not be a great leap for BP or anyone else to change over. after all the basic premise is still there. drive up. park, hook up and charge. now out of all this, the 3-5 minute recharge time is what i have the most doubts about. 52 KWH of power is a lot to transfer. would it be necessary for all passengers to exit the vehicle for safety reasons? etc...

    now in the post above, there was an analysis of this application to semi's and the numbers are staggering. there is where the real benefit would be realized. even in a $100,000 EESU investment, the payback would only be a few years. but that would not happen until charging stations were installed to support the trucks.

    so, that is going to take 2-3 years even with major government backing. granted the money will be obvious and the private sector would need help to get thru the red tape and initially at least, all the diesel saved will need to be converted to fuel oil for the increased electricity demand which in turn will put more emphasis on putting in wind and solar. with EESU's, storage of energy from these sources will no longer be an issue.

    this technology wont only revoluntionize the transportation industry, it will change nearly every aspect of our lives. we could carry around personal devices with much higher capabilities that are currently hampered by power consumption issues verses size and weight.
     
  4. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    Speculation is fun, but it's all still just speculation until we know:

    1. If u-caps will actually hit the market in sufficient numbers.

    2. What will be their real energy density in terms of both weight and size.

    3. What they will actually cost.

    My friend, who is an authorized Zenn repair man, claims to have heard from Zenn that they will cost between AGMs and floodies, but I think your estimate of half as much as lithium makes more sense, since at first, with availability limited by production facilities, market demand will be a bigger factor than production cost, in determining cost to the consumer. But again, this is all just speculation, and will mean nothing if they fail to develop means of mass production.
     
  5. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    I do still have concerns about the power transfer being too high even though the EESU can apparently handle it. BP might have a role to play in a world of EESUs but their business case isn't anywhere near as compelling IMHO.

    The contract price from EEStor to Zenn is apparently about $100-150 per kWh not including the electronics. But let's not forget that's for a device that does not for all practical purposes wear out.

    Again, as Daniel says, we can only wait and see. Watching this story unfold is an amazing show.
     
  6. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    ok. 10 K for EESU and control circuitry will keep the cost under $30,000. i am pretty sure that fast charging capability will be an additional premium on that. (Zenn would be foolish to not price that higher at least at first)

    for the most part, i would get an EV with EESU, (slow charging would be just fine) and look at $10-15 K for a conversion on my 2010 Pri. (slow charging would still be JUST FINE) and i am set.

    for the 8 times in the last 12 months that anything approaching 200 miles in a day was needed, i will then do the "unthinkable" and burn gas.

    besides, even if EESU's were out today, it will be better than a year before one of these "fast charging" stations would be around and i strongly suspect, unless i am living in So. Cal, it will be much longer than that for my area.

    now with CA budget situation, it will be a tough call. converting to EESU's would save them a TON of money in fuel costs even with much higher electricity rates. but the initial cash outlay (something they do not have) will be the sticking point.

    the west areas where open land is widely available will be booming, generating abundant power cheaply then selling it for profit will be a new business model.
     
  7. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    We don't really know that, either. The dielectric in a capacitor is under tremendous electrical pressure. This will be a new dielectric that's not been tested over time. It is possible that there may be no limit to charge-discharge cycles, but that the dielectric may degrade over time, leading to catastrophic failure when it can no longer support the voltage between the plates.

    The Prius is the worst possible choice for conversion to pure EV since you'd be throwing away a lot of technology to get an aerodynamic donor car.

    And remember that the Prius only goes up to 42 mph in electric mode, and will deny EV and start the ICE if you apply more than a feather touch to the pedal.

    For a car that you can use as a pure EV 357 days a year up to 200 miles, and burn gas on the 8 days you need to go farther, you need a series PHEV like the Volt supposedly would be if they ever built it.

    Fast-charging will require extremely heavy cabling, but otherwise nothing special in the car. Better Place may find a niche providing charging stations. But their business model (sell the car cheap but require a contract for the miles) will be in competition with stations that simply sell electricity and do not tie you to one company.
     
  8. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    I can't say with certainty but the rumour has it that components have been tested over a millions cycles.
     
  9. BlueIce

    BlueIce New Member

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    I read an acticle in a online engineering trade magzine about the Cermic batteries. The operating tempature is currently a problem up to 600° F and they are working on a unit to bring down the operating temperature to 200°F for comsumer use. Lowering the temperature rating will most likely bring down the charging rate.

    I will try to find the article and post the link.
     
  10. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    Those must be a different beast from EESUs of EEStor.
     
  11. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    Note that I was pointing out that the electrolyte might degrade with time rather than with the number of charge-discharge cycles. Chemical storage (batteries) undergo chemical changes with every cycle, leading to degradation based on the number of cycles. Static-electric storage does not change chemically each time there is a charge or discharge, but the electrolyte is under stress while the unit is holding a charge, and this might possibly cause degradation based on time rather than on number of cycles.

    I'm not saying it will. I'm saying it's a potential problem that must be tested. And while you may be able to apply a million charge-discharge cycles in a year, you can assess the effects of time only by waiting the length of time you wish to assess.

    My point is not that u-caps will fail. My point is that there are many unknowns. There are no sure things, and some of the conversation here seems to imply that if u-caps are built, they will do everything they are touted to do, and will do it perfectly, flawlessly,

    Definitely a different technology. Ceramic batteries are high-temperature chemical storage; u-caps are static-electric storage. I can't see high-temperature batteries having an application in cars, though at least we wouldn't have to worry about them overheating: ambient air would provide plenty of cooling.
     
  12. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    I heard a rumor today: That Zenn was planning to buy the glider for the CityZenn from China. Does anyone know anything about that? And does that change folks' opinions about Zenn stock? A lot of people will be reluctant to buy a freeway-capable car from China.

    My Xebra is made in China, and while I call it the safest motorcycle on the road, I would not dream of taking it on the freeway if it could go that fast. It's a fun little car, and it's turned out to be very reliable in the two years I've been driving it, for all the minor problems I had with it in the first year. I'm driving it daily again now while I wait for work to be done on my Porsche. But I'd be very cautious about buying a car from China if I was going to drive it on the freeway. The Xebra's saving grace is its 35-mph top speed (50 downhill, but I won't do that again; it was too scary the one time I did it.)

    I also heard that the glider for the present crop of Zenns is no longer being made, and I wonder where that's going. The Zenn is a very nice little car, and it would be a shame if they had to quit making it for lack of a glider.
     
  13. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    I haven't heard that. And I seriously doubt it.

    The general consensus is that Zenn is not going to be in the car selling business once EESUs are revealed. Sure they may make a couple cityZenn demo vehicles, perhaps with gliders from China, but that's it.

    Their business plan is to become a EESU-integrated drivetrain developer/supplier. They have stated publicly that they have been in talks with a major car oem (my guess Magna) that will manufacture whatever vehicles or drivetrains they want to showcase or sell to other manufacturers.

    They are the exclusive middleman for the entire automotive industry to go through in order to get their hands on EESUs (for vehicles under 1400kg net of EESUs). They will not need to make their own brand of vehicle except to showcase the technology.
     
  14. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    i agree. the CitiZenn is only going to showcase the technology and i for one am completely at a loss as to exactly why Zenn is even offering a car at all other than to introduce the technology. granted EV's of all types have a major stigma attached, but this technology has to be a no-brainer even to the green tech neophytes.

    AFAIK, they are not going to be building the EESU, only buying them from eestor and then re-marketing them to Auto manufacturers on a OEM distribution, while providing conversion kits for all models from their factory. after all that, they will have little time left to build a car.

    i can see why they would earmark China. cheap and fast. China as a country does not have massive regulations to negotiate. the government decides to do it and it gets done. the "red tape" delay is practically non-existent. they can mobilize a very large, talented, and dedicated (some say "slave") labor pool very quickly.

    the Beijing Olympics could not have been pulled off anywhere else under the same economic conditions.

    even if CitiZenn was built for demo purposes only, this is a worldwide distribution, i fully expect to take more than year before it hits the US. we are still talking about a significant # of cars. what would to a "pilot" build number for worldwide distribution? 500,000? a million?
     
  15. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    The above just does not ring true to me. What's the point in one company building u-caps and another company doing nothing but buying them to re-sell? What about all the other investors in EEStor? Surely they will want to get their hands on u-caps. And as for an initial year's run of half a million EVs, I cannot see that many people rushing out to buy a new technology before an infrastructure of charging stations is in place.

    I see this as something that will grow gradually (assuming u-caps actually come to market). Early adopters will grab them for use in middle-range cars, and that will create a market for a few charging stations on well-used routes (L.A. to S.F.; N.Y. to D.C., etc.) and that will enlarge the market, etc. I see 10,000 cars in the first year, not half a million.

    If the lifetime cost is less than floodies, u-caps will start to displace batteries in stationary applications where people with PVs or wind generators want to be off the grid, but only gradually as existing batteries wear out.

    There won't be a large-scale market for EVs until there is a charging infrastructure, and that will grow gradually as a small number of early adopters create a small market for charging, and a few charging stations draw a few more people into EVs and the spiral winds slowly outwards.

    Best-case scenario: in a decade 1% of cars could be EVs. And that's the best case, if u-caps turn out to be all they're claimed to be, and there are no manufacturing glitches, and there's sufficient capital available in this devastated economy to build the factories, and the price is affordable for consumers, and Exxon does not buy them out just to keep them off the market.
     
  16. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    The charging infrastructure is already largely in place for anybody with access to an outlet. Yes you can fast charge an EESU but my understanding is you don't have to. It can trickle charge from a ordinary outlet. Plus, the need to fast charge will be more limited than with a li-ion ev because the EESU ev will have a much greater range (300km) than what's normally found in a proposed li-ion ev (100km)

    If EESUs exist as claimed, I think in ten years there won't be any ICE vehicles on the market, except perhaps in heavy trucks and hopefully they are hybrids with EESUs onboard.

    The word is the production line that creates these u-caps is modular and scalable and will set up in house at every car/laptop/power tool manufacturer's premises.
     
  17. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    this is a business model that has been used for years. intel did it. they did build computers, but only pilot builds to introduce new technology. what their thing was providing processors. and lets face it, without that, you had nothing.

    cellphone companies do it. they lease cellphones and provide the service to use the cellphone. its all about licensing a product to do a specific task. you cant take a verizon phone and use it on ATT and so on.

    c.b. radios, walkie-talkies and cellphones all work on electromagetic radiation at a certain frequency. all it is a technology licensed to do different things. well cellphone service is a trillion dollar business. the other two probably never made a billion.

    the only major area (that we know of... i am relatively certain that eestor has other investors that have not been revealed) that has not been addressed is stationary power storage used for inconsistent power sources like wind and solar for home. with the longevity and the competitive pricing, a bank of EESU's with enough storage to provide emergency power to a entire city is possible. it would be a one time investment that greatly reduces the risk inherent to green power.

    as far as millions of EESU's being available soon after launch...aint gonna happen. it will take AT LEAST a year for the average joe to even know what an EESU is when its introduced. the CitiZenn's role is to get the word out. and they might roll out at a few hundred a month initially.

    the first signs of EESU's in the wild will be fleet conversion announcements and so on. more publicity, etc. than us lowly EV owners (ya we probably be shafted at the bottom of the priority ladder)
     
  18. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    Grid leveling is definitely of interest to Dick Weir. He's pursuing it according to his own words in the leaked interview found here:

    TheEEStory.com: Transcript of Weir June 2009 Conference Call
     
  19. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    Fast charging is a prerequisite for mass adoption even with a 300-mile car because people will want to be able to drive farther than that in a day for road trips. Further, the cost of new cars will slow down adoption. Your scenario implies that all gas cars will be scrapped. That means they have no value. That means everyone has to buy a brand-new car with no credit for a trade-in. Most people cannot afford that, and therefore when the market for gas cars collapses, people will drive them until they fall apart.

    Half of all two-car American families today could sell one of their gas cars and buy a Xebra instead, but they don't, because they want unlimited range on all their cars, whether they really need it or not. If u-caps cost half of lithium (as Dave speculates) then 300 miles of range will cost around $90,000 for the u-caps alone. This is not a price that Americans will pay. And if you figure that Better Place will loan the batteries, a hundred million cars would require an investment of nine trillion dollars! This ain't gonna happen fast!

    And Big Oil is not going to sit on its hands while the market for gasoline disappears over the course of a decade.

    Intel sold processors to anyone who wanted to buy them. They did not have an exclusive contract to sell processors only to IBM. My point was that I could not see EEStor selling exclusively to Zenn. They'll need to sell to every company that wants them, which means that Zenn will face a lot of competition, and is therefore not by any means a sure thing to succeed financially.
     
  20. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    You need to spend several hours here: http://theeestory.com LOL.