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Zenn again!!

Discussion in 'EV (Electric Vehicle) Discussion' started by DaveinOlyWA, Sep 2, 2009.

  1. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    I'd rather spend my time reading a book. Anyway, I hear (second-hand) that that web site is full of folks who think the world as we know it is about to end. Something about how China is about to cause all U.S. banks to fail, the dollar to collapse to zero, and food riots to break out all over the U.S. I'm not saying it won't happen :eek: I'm just saying it's not where I care to pass my time. :D
     
  2. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    Geez, never read that on EEStory. I think you source must be thinking about some other site.
     
  3. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    daniel; just because you dont "see" it only means you dont understand or care to know. the information is out there and getting much easier to find. business is business. the terms of EESU distribution provided to Zenn is pretty much a done deal agreed in principle 7 years ago. good for eestor or bad, does not matter now. eestor already got what they wanted, the only man out at this point is Lockheed, Zenn and the other currently unknown investors (there is a 2-3 wheel cycle company in too but the name escapes me right now) since they are still waiting for the product they have already paid to develop.

    and no, gas cars will not go away in your lifetime. (well, maybe if you live to be an old man) i might see it. my children definitely will, but gas cars will here at least another 2-3 decades unfortunately.

    fast charging is not viable to everyone even if you can get a 500 mile range (which btw can easily be done. there are plans to put EESU's on semi to get a 1000 mile range. they would only have to be charged as quickly as a few hours) there still needs to be a infrastructure which is fine and dandy here. but we are hardly typical. in fact, most of the world would not because they could not build a charging infrastructure even if they wanted to.

    but we dont need to whole world to convert. we jus do Europe, the main population centers in Asia, etc. that would be fine. it will take probably more than 10 years to get even a 10-20% market share. so, ya, during the time that EESU's (the supposed answer to all our prayers) are available, they will still be outsold by gas cars by 5 to 1 plus.

    but what is a 10% world market share worth?? ahh, forget that. lets go 2%. that is still a HUGE market. also, your price of lithium batteries. that might be what you pay, but auto manufacturers would pay significantly less. EESU's are targeted at $100 per KWH making base price of the "targeted" 52 KWH unit around $5200. not including the control electronics which would obviously vary greatly from one OEM to another. so we are talking a "hopefully" retail to modder of $10-12,000.

    that is "up" to 175-200 (unlike batteries, discharge down to 5% SOC is ok.) miles range. will cover more than 94% of daily trips. these modules are small enough where it would be easy to mount multiple units on trucks, buses, etc.

    **edit**
    as far as china causing US banks to fail, that rumor is going around ALL OVER the place. China will soon be unable to feed themselves and will look to a trade deal with the US. well, the last time we did that, our grain prices doubled causing OUR food to jump sharply in price. well, China will be wanting a much bigger chunk and yes, they hold enough of our bonds to cause us a major problem. but have not seen any of that on Eestory
     
  4. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    I think you are both underestimating the durability, efficiency and cost effectiveness benefits of EVs over gas cars. Gas cars will never be able to compete with an EESU powered EVs.

    Nobody would buy a NEW gas car if they had the option to buy a NEW 250 km EV for under $25,000. Gas is only going to go up in price as we tax the crap out of carbon. While electricity rates with smart grids, V2G and new renewable technology (e.g. nanosolar) creating new efficiencies is only going to get cheaper.

    Imagine driving at 2 cents a mile with superior reliability vs. 15 cents a mile with all the hassles that go with maintaining/repairing a gas car.

    It'll be a complete no-brainer. Gas cars will disappear once every major car manufacturer starts putting EESU powered EVs on the lots.

    Analogy: Digital cameras vs film.

    Remember EESUs are only $150/kWh to start and they don't wear out. Expect the price to drop a lot in ten years.
     
  5. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    fibb, you right, it is a no brainer. but that does not matter. what matters is there is no charging grid out there for one. 30% of people who own cars cant charge at home for another, unknown technology for 3...and

    the biggest reason of all. an established trillion dollar industry that will not relinquish control that easily.

    as far as what EESU's will cost. your estimate is 50% higher than mine, but even yours is very much cheaper than any battery option even if longevity is ignored.

    and the answer to your implied question; who would buy a gas car if an EESU powered vehicle was available for $25,000.

    answer: the millions of people who would rather buy the dirt cheap gas car for $14,000... after all, just because Zenn starts marketing a much better option does not mean the previous option will disappear overnight. they will go away, but dont expect that to happen in less than 20 years

    **edit** btw, the expected range of the CitiZenn is 250 miles or 400 Km.
     
  6. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    You both know that you don't have to convince me that EVs are better than stinkers. I own two of them. EVs, that is. I just think you're both making a lot of assumptions about u-caps. "Counting your chickens before they're hatched." And overestimating the common sense of the American public. Look at the voting record of the American public, and you can see that car-buying decisions are likely to have a lot more to do with TV advertising than with anything based on self interest or common sense. If Zenn comes out with a 300-mile car, GM is going to spend a billion dollars (of taxpayer-subsidized money) in commercials asking people which car they'd rather have their kinds in in a head-on collision: their latest 6,000-pound monstrosity, or a Zenn. The Zenn may actually do better overall in safety, but it's the imagine of the head-on collision that's going to keep Americans buying the gas guzzler.

    Rather than betting on one particular supplier of one particular storage technology, I'm doing some homework on alternative energy generation. I'll be putting some money into a fund that invests widely in sustainable energy.

    But I'm rooting for EEStor to be on the level and for Zenn to make a hit. And if they do, I'll be one of the first in line to buy u-caps for my Porsche. I want you guys to make a killing on your Zenn stock. I just don't think it's a sound investment. It may not literally be a penny stock, but like a penny stock, it trades in small volume and low price, and is likely to be extremely volatile. And it's ultimate success depends on so much more than the successful development of u-caps, even assuming they materialize.
     
  7. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    daniel; i think we are thinking more on the same page than either of us realize. Fibb, what you want to happen, WE ALL WANT, but it just is not going to happen that fast.

    as far as an investment. i only want to make enough on the Zenn stock to get my next highway capable EV for free. i am probably about ¼ of the way there now. stock went up another nickel today. or maybe a dime. not sure. must have missed a day somewhere. portfolio says it went up $200 today, but its worth $600 more than the last time i checked. i do have other stocks but they didnt do much.

    and daniel you are right, green energy companies is where the long term money is at and i have a few companies with good ideas (i think) that should profit should EESU's become a reality and will profit anyway with EV's but only much slower.

    there is one guy who made a TON on lithium mining companies. up till recently there has been multiple predictions of major lithium shortages due to the expected battery demands when the EV's start hitting the market. he quadrupled his money from early spring to now. but as soon as the latest eestor info came out, he dumped most of that and went to Zenn. and so far he is right. lithium mining stocks have dropped more than 20% over the past few weeks.
     
  8. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    Just going by what's in the patents.

    Touche
     
  9. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    Patents won't tell you how the u-caps will perform, what they'll cost, whether the manufacturing can be scaled up, or even if they'll really do what's being claimed.

    There's big money to be made in the market (at an equally big risk) if you can anticipate what other investors are going to do: Buy the newest fad before it becomes a fad, and sell it before everyone else gives up on it. One problem with hindsight is you tend to see the successes and ignore the failures. Everyone says "I should have bought Apple way back when," but nobody says "It's a good thing I didn't buy Coconut Computers," because we don't remember the ones that failed.

    You two guys are investing money into Zenn that you can afford to lose, but there are lurkers here, and it would be sad if one of them puts his entire retirement fund into Zenn and then it collapses and he loses everything.
     
  10. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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  11. MJFrog

    MJFrog Active Member

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    I suspect their results might be a little skewed:

    I wouldn't trust a web-based survey to be representative of the general public.
     
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  12. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    Good point! People who participate in web-based surveys are self-selected for a positive attitude toward technology and innovation. And it's one thing to say you'd buy something; it's another to actually shell out the cash once you've seen the price tag.
     
  13. efusco

    efusco Moderator Emeritus
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    Shocking...not....
    REPORT: Zenn cancels plans for high-speed EV, will focus on supplying ZENNergy Drive components — Autoblog Green

    According to reports from Reuters and GM-Volt.com, Zenn Motors has canceled plans to launch its cityZENN high-speed electric car and will slow down work on its low-speed EVs. According to Zenn Chief Executive Ian Clifford, the company will focus its efforts on becoming a supplier of ZENNergy Drive electric vehicle drivetrain components, which we assume will center around the EEStor energy storage system. Why the change in plans?
    Our decisions regarding cityZENN continue to evolve in response to advancements in electric vehicle deployment across the industry since we announced cityZENN a couple of years ago... Integration of ZENNergy Drive in Tier 1 and OEM product has always been our long term objective. The cityZENN program was always designed as a proof of concept for ZENNergy Drive.
    According to Clifford, EEStor still plans to perform component testing in September (which at this point is nearly over), though it (surprise!) won't necessarily publish the results of its findings. The next step would be to "deliver functional technology" to Zenn by the end of 2009. We're waiting... still.
     
  14. That_Prius_Car

    That_Prius_Car Austin Kinser

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    Hmmm, I thought about the ZENN for a long time, but it just doesnt meet my need's. It can only go at a max speed of 25mph, and has a range of about 30mi. So I have been on the hunt for a Prius. I dont know though if I want a 2010, or a second gen.
     
  15. DaveinOlyWA

    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    there was a lot of discussion as to why Zenn would want to build a car with EESU in it. especially when they only wanted to be known as the supplier of the drive system (they want to market it like the "intel inside" scheme) originally it made sense when the launch date was a few years away and the possibility of competing technologies was there. but now that the time is near (we hope) and its clear that there is nothing even close as far as range, weight and price, there is little need to produce a vehicle to demo the technology.
     
  16. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    By a used Gen2 and add an enginer phev kit to it. Cheapest/most reliable hwy capable plug in going I bet.
     
  17. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    "Shocking.... not" Well put efusco. And Dave you're correct as well.

    Plus, now that every car company in the world has announce EV or PHEV plans, there is no need to showcase an EESU driven cityzenn to the world. All the car companies "get it". Time to just focus on the "zennergy inside" model instead of trying to compete with the oems.

    Waiting on the edge of my seat for the big reveal.... whenever that is.
     
  18. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    When Zenn was promising (or folks on this board said it was) to have the City Zenn on car lots for sale to the public in ... when did they say? 2009 or 2010... I was saying this was not credible: The time it would take such a small company to design, test, and build a mass-production car would be much longer.

    So now they've scrapped the City Zenn entirely, and are putting all their eggs in the EEStor basket! And EEStor is now promising to deliver a product in an unlikely short amount of time. I would not be buying Zenn stock right now!
     
  19. Fibb222

    Fibb222 New Member

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    Zenn was never going to build the cityzenn without an EESU inside. Zenn has always been nothing without EEStor.

    Zenn for years has simply been a holding company in waiting for EEStor.

    Zenn probably has prelimary deals with oems in place and the cityzenn is a complete waste of time and counterproductive. Why even pretend to compete with your own customers?

    I just bought more stock yesterday.
     
  20. Steve321

    Steve321 New Member

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    250 mile range, top speed of 80 mph... well if it aint about time!!
    http://priuschat.com/forums/other-c...lans-highway-capable-zenn-powered-eestor.html

    7 Days left in September!

    On to the next ZennBaloney.