Why Can't Other Plug-In Hybrids Copy Chevy Volt's All-Electric Running?

HSD is a logo used from the THS II system onwards, 2Gen Prius, but there were other Toyota hybrids earlier that shared some or all of the technology of 1Gen Prius:

2001 - Crown hybrid (mild), Estima hybrid
2003 - Alphard hybrid

All JP models, but were released.

 

This is an area where some hard numbers would help. The best I can do is take the top tier hybrids, sum them, and top tier plug-ins, sum them, and the graph them together over the past year. This might give a clue about the degree of cannibalization going on. But having seen the numbers every month, I suspect it is fairly small.

Informally, we see a number of familiar, former Prius owners now "educating" us, the remaining Prius owners about how wonderful the plug-ins are ... begging the question of why not spend time recruiting more ICE owners?

Bob Wilson

 

I expect just as good, if not slightly worse (to get benefits of both EV and HV), otherwise you are compromising.

Take PiP for example. My EV efficiency has been 135 MPGe, better than any pure EVs out there and my HV efficiency has been 54 MPG (just as good as a regular Prius, if not better). I got the best of both worlds, retaining synergy.

 

I think one thing to remember before the first commercial plug-in was released, people were adding batteries to the prius. Market needs were not being fulfilled by Toyota. There is going to be some cannibalization of a product if the buyers of the product are really just buying it because they can't buy something else. That is a good not a bad thing. It is also not a ceiling or a zero sum game. 2011 was the first full year of selling plug-ins. In the US sales have grown at a average annual rate of 90% to 123,049. Most of these buyers are much happier with their plug-ins than they would be with a prius, and it is doubtful that hybrids would be much higher today if plug-ins were outlawed. Indeed plug-in development should help reduce parts costs for hybrids.

This is not to say that that 90% growth is sustainable. This year and next the growth rate should be low as people wait for newer models (gen II volt, bolt, gen II leaf, gen II or Iv prius phv, outlander phev, tesla model x and III). Then growth should resume as battery prices continue to fall. I think cars like the tesla model S and bmw i3 have demolished tribal conversations among car buyers as these are desirable plug-ins. There is a tribal car dealer community and slow moving people at big car companies that will slow growth. We always have the hydrogen lobby trying to slow plug-ins as well with there friends in government. But One loud billionare is making it hard for these lobbies and dealerships to hold plug-ins back.

There are 20 different plug-ins sold in america today, many only go to copliance states, but still a fair amount of choice in alabama.

That leaves 60% that might buy a 35+ mpg hybrid or diesel, a phev, or a bev. Let's get it up from less than 5% to over 20%;-)The fastest growing efficient car segment is plug-ins, and its likely things like ford having a plug-in version of their fusion helps co sell the fusion hybrid.

 

I'm not sure about others, however, I spend far more effort sharing the joys of electric driving with others.

You only see my activity here and not at car swaps, Cars & Coffee events, various shows, test drive events, the state capital (I'm going there today), etc,.

Not only have I seen "gear heads" purchasing Teslas and Volts (as daily drivers), but those people turn around and become very ardent supporters. Many of them bring their own cars to events and continue to spread the word.

Likewise, when you track only the hybrid and highly efficient cars along with plugins, you see those correlations, however not the correlation to other vehicles. If you visit any other car sites, most of the plugins have a poll showing what car people traded in. It is rather interesting.

I too would like to have a more quantifiable way to measure this over the short term.
Over the long term the trend should be apparent, and give us a better idea of what is happening.
Unfortunately, in the short term I don't know of a good way to get numbers beyond the occasional news stories, polls and what I see on the ground locally.

 

congratulations on getting such good fuel economy. Of course YMMV and maybe with your driving pattern you get better than these other cars and you are doing better than epa, but the i3, spark, and leaf do better at least according to the epa test.
Compare Side-by-Side
The i3-bev gets 137 mpge in the city and combined uses 27 kwh of electricity for 100 miles

The spark gets 128 mpge in the city and combined uses 28 kwh of electricityfor 100 miles
The i3-rex doesn't break down city versus combined but uses 29 kwh of electricity for 100 miles
The leaf gets 126 mpge in the city and combined uses 30 kwh of electricity for 100 miles

The prius doesn't break down city versus combined but uses 29 kwh of electricity + 0.2 gallons of gas for 100 miles
0.2 gallons of gas are enough to travel 10 miles on the epa cycle. That means a naive estimate would be 90 miles, converting
The prius would use about 32 kwh if it could do the epa test on electricity alone, about 7% more than the leaf or 18% more than the most efficient the i3-bev.

Now these numbers are still excellent and there are other reasons than efficiency to choose the prius phv over these cars. Hey looks alone over the leaf, and internal space versus the spark and i3, or maybe you just like it or toyota better. Its an excellent choice for you and john The next gen should be even more efficient. But we should realize other cars use electricity more efficiently. Choice is good.

 

long live choice!

 

I've been pushing FULL hybrids for 15 years. Since the beginning, it was always about getting something clean, efficient, and affordable for the masses. That meant a practical vehicle which didn't compromise to emphasize any particular trait. In other words, it would be an ordinary part of the crowd, an everyday vehicle you'd see everywhere.

Prius fit that criteria extremely well. So, whenever someone passionately liked something else, they'd assume I was fighting against them. It was unheard of back then to endorse multiple automakers. If I was pro-Toyota, in there mind, it was impossible to be anything else. That's clearly not the case. My friends who own Leaf, Volt, and Tesla know that well. Some on this forum though and elsewhere still don't believe that though. Because I want a vehicle for the mainstream, they take great offense to words casting their preference as a niche... rather than just acknowledging a clean, efficient, and affordable also.

That's why I pushed so hard on GM. I couldn't care less what happened to Volt. And I was constantly misrepresented as trying to kill it. Thankfully now, it's becoming easier to see that I was pushed for diversification. A niche is fine as long as there's also a choice for the ordinary consumer... hence having mentioned Malibu literally thousands of times and pointing out how it was the true competition for Volt, not Prius.

Those losses on the showroom floor will be very, very difficult to deny now. GM's own customers weren't interested... which is why there was so much attention brought to conquest sales from former Prius owners... which cannibalized the market, rather than expand. That missed opportunity has been acknowledged, finally.

I'll admit, it is very nice having been correct all along, but there's not really much to take credit for. The economics were pretty basic. GM's production of traditional vehicles didn't change when Two-Mode or Volt or BAS were rolled out. They never captured any sales beyond just special interest. Volt depended heavily upon a subsidy too. This new hybrid, a proper FULL design, won't. It will be targeting the appropriate audience too... those whom in the past provided profit for the business.

 

appreciate your humility.

 

This is a really interesting topic, however it isn't exactly on topic. I created a thread to analyze and explore the efficient car market over here: Efficient car market growth and trends | PriusChat

I'm hoping we can gather some information and discuss that there.

 

In its first year, 33% of trade ins for the Volt were other hybrids. While just a drop in the bucket in total numbers, 66% of Volt customers coming from an ICEV is a good start. The hybrid segment got a bump in sales when the selection increased, but that settled back down. The hybrid/plugin segment is seeing some net growth because of the plugins catching those that weren't hybrid buyers before.

There are a couple issues holding up alternate tech, high efficiency car sales. One is that ICEVs have stepped up their efficiency. In some car segments, they are matching a hybrid version on mpg highway numbers. In others, the efficiency has hit the point where most people don't see a benefit to paying extra for a hybrid.

The other is that of the three big selling segments; midsize sedan, minivan/SUV, and truck, there is only one that has hybrid options with a noticable mpg improvement. First, we can point to the EPA's classification as much as we want, but the general public doesn't see the Prius as a midsize sedan. It's a hatchback with less passenger space than the new Corolla. Good thing is that of the real midsize sedans, five of the major manufacturers have, or will soon have, a hybrid version that gets 40mpg combined. The price and usable trunk space is what holds their sales back. Both have gotten better with each generation though.

There are some hybrid options for family sized SUVs. The HiHy offers little improvement for the price. The Explorer with 2L Ecoboost matches it on the highway. Yes, the HiHy gets 7mpg more in the city and AWD, but $7000 to $9000 will buy a lot of gas even if the buyer opts for an Explorer with AWD and larger engine. Plus it has a some more cargo space. There is a Pathfinder hybrid that is in between those two in fuel efficiency and price. At least the 2014 is on the price. While there is a 2015 one listed on Fueleconomy.gov, it isn't on Nissan's site.

There is no hybrid minivan. I don't think there is even one with start/stop available in the US yet. We might see something from Chrysler soon though.

Same with trucks, but the new F150 has a model with start/stop. This segment is seeing incremental improvement in the big sellers though. Buyers of trucks do want improved fuel economy. Over half of F150 sales shifted to V6s when the 3.5 Ecoboost came out. But they don't want pay more and sacrifice hauling ability. Which was an issue with two-mode, and the hauling is one with the HSD in Toyota's SUVs. The Ford and Toyota partnership for a truck hybrid system broke up without an apparent workable system. Small displacement diesels will probably be a must, if the price gap in fuel ever narrows enough. Perhaps something will finally come of a hydraulic hybrid(HHV) for them. A PHV truck should work for fuel economy and hauling concerns, but they will remain too expensive as long as they are third party conversions like Via.

For car traction packs, Li-ion and NiMH batteries are at least the same, with a possible advantage to lithium. The federal tax incentives have helped push the increased manufacturing cost and chemistry improvements. There is a recently started thread on how the prices have dropped more than previously estimated. A Li-ion pack for the Malibu is likely.

NiMH might have seen similar improvements if patents hadn't barred it as a plugin option. Only Toyota has any cost advantage with it from cornering much of the supply during the Prius' rapid ascent.

-Considering electric cost, and how little difference in consumption between these high MPGe numbers, the electric cost for the user will be measured in cents. Carbon emissions depend on the grid, which is getting cleaner with many plugin buyers taking extra steps to clean their electric.
-We just have mpg estimates from GM at the moment, but if the Volt is only 41mpg(presumably combined) so what? The increased electric range means the engine will be on even less time the current, thirstier model. So the overall gas consumption reduction will be greater than going from 37 to 41mpg alone. Note that increase is about 10%, the same as between Prius generations.
-A car the Volt's size will not be the primary car for a large family. Along with longer EV range, most people just wanted a middle space for a car seat. It will also work for a quick lunch jaunt with 4 co-workers.
-Already covered. See, EV Battery Costs Dropping Faster than Predicted | PriusChat. The Volt has to about the 2nd gen refresh before worrying about selling without the tax credit.

I am aware of them, but, as you said, Japanese only. It is a different market and culture. Fuel economy was always a concern, and I think many Japanese aren't as frightened of new technology as Americans are. Toyota may have more financial support from their government in regards to them. They would not have sold well in the US if introduced soon after the gen1 Prius, and Toyota likely would have lost money on them. The same is true of the Volt. Gen1 sales and its costs weren't at the point that justified spreading the Voltec system to all new models. The ELR is just a gussied and tuned up Volt to be offered as competition to the Tesla S. GM knew it wouldn't succeed in that regard before it went on sale, and it is only a limited run model.

I do, with RL friends and family, and I correct the hybrid myths when I see them on the Fuelly forums. I only go to other car model forums when looking for solutions for problems and maintenance. If I never got a Prius and joined here, I wouldn't come here to post about plugins. I also wouldn't be caring about plugins and hybrids at all in that case.

 

What about the 2015 Lexus CT200h which uses the 3rd gen Prius powertrain but only gets 42 mpg combined EPA even though it weighs 400 pounds less than the 2016 Volt and is a compact with less interior room than the Volt. What explains that?

Not the performance, since it does 0-30 mph in 3.7 seconds (Volt 2.6) and 0-30 in 10.4 seconds (Volt 8.4).

Sure, the ct200h design is getting a bit old but it is still 42 mpg compact vs 50 in the Prius mid-size.

The Volt, as a large battery PHEV/EREV, is an EV for everyday driving with a full performance backup range extender. That combination matches the characteristics of a very large battery EV with superdupercharging but at drastically lower pricing and with availability today. It is a transitional design and may carry some price advantage for the next 10-15 years and also the convenience of 3 minute refueling on long trips.

No car is perfect in all environments. The Volt is presently in an excellent design space for customers with access to good to average carbon electricity. If I lived in North Dakota with only coal-dominated grid power I would buy a Prius or a 2016 Malibu hybrid etc. instead.

In California or lots of other areas a Volt can do much better on carbon emissions than a Prius. It's all about the available electricity supply. A Volt-like car is not an inherently bad compromise design as you often state or seem to imply.

 

The EPA estimate on carbon emissions for the PPI in ND is only 10g/mi higher than on the nation grid average, and only 12g/mi than the Prius. Using 27% EV miles if IIRC.

 

Increase in emission over a regular Prius is one thing. It is another for Toyota to sell PiP at a loss and tax payer foot $2,500. This is not the step in the right direction. This action is promoting/rewarding dirtier emission.

If Toyota can improve EV efficiency in next gen and the grid gets cleaner, it'll make sense to actually spend more to get cleaner results.

There is a reason I don't praise the CT200h. Comparing Volt to it is a pretty low standard.

You are also comparing Lexus to Chevy. Perhaps a better comparison is between CT200h and ELR.

Volt is pretty clean since next gen may reach 47 MPG equivalent. My point was how to get there. There is a simple way and then Volt took the hard way with wasted resources.

I just hope the previous fumbles (Two Mode, Stop/Start, BAS) won't hurt it. This was implemented on a 3 years old model instead of a redesigned model.

The timing seems like it came out due to the expiration of key HSD patent. Details on this design is not available. I think it'll be very similar to HSD.

Those figures are just average. My best record just rank #14 on the top 20 list.

Those plugins on your list are designed to put highway EV miles and that reduces efficiency. Whereas, PiP was designed for city driving (and some highway) as the gas engine complement high speed longer distance driving. This is the reason why my both EV and HV efficiency remains high. That is the striking difference.

That difference also backfired on Toyota. The press took the starting of gas engine on heavy acceleration or higher speed, as negative. They did not drive enough to see the overall efficiency improvements.

On top of that, EPA didn't test PiP City cycle with EV mode and Highway cycle in HV (as designed). EPA did the blended test for both cycles and the efficiency of both fuels came out mixed and not clear.

 

I really just hear excuses.

1) We need to wait until the average grid is cleaner before it makes sense to build plug-ins
A) In today's grid for over 60% of the population if they were to buy the average plug-in it would produce less ghg than the most efficient non-plug in car. Most of the rest of the minority (40% today) can buy greener power than their grid. Over 90% of plug-ins purchased so far produce less ghg than the car the owner considered against the plug-in.

The US grid is getting cleaner. This is opposite to the predictions that it would become more coal intense with more plug ins. Over the lifetime this means a plug-in will produce less greenhouse gas than it does today, while most ice cars get less efficient and higher polluting as they age.

Then there is the elephant in the room, plug-ins shift away from the biggest import and most scarce fossil fuel to renewable electricity, nuclear, and more plentiful fossil fuels of natural gas and coal. That means electricity not only will be cleaner in the future it will be less expensive and won't have the externalities of relying on the unstable politics of the middle east and russia. Now the one exception to the shift is hawaii, which has much higher ghg emissions than the national average and uses a lot of oil to make electricity Toyota chooses to sell the prius phv there. I have no problem with that, but it shows they picked states for carb compliance not for environmental reasons. Any handwaving excuses need to explain why hawaii and not Austin (about 60% ghg, used in electric charging study, with federal and local invitations for toyota to be included).

There is no reason to have plug-ins wait until the grid in kentucky is as low in unhealthy and ghg pollution as washington state. It certainly looks like the time for companies to work on it is now, if we want to reduce oil and ghg emisions 20 years from now. Americans don't adopt technology quickely.

2. Toyota is one of the biggest collectors of corporate welfare. As they fight the ev subsidy, they have lobbiests working on raising the fuel cell subsidy even higher, inspite of the fact that a volt running where toyota wants to run fuel cells will produce lower ghg emissions than the mirai, and will always be more convient to fuel. Toyota also got US taxpayer money for the Toyota Tundra, which is hardly a green machine versus the volt. Toyota is just upset competitors get money too.

well yes one is a chevy and one is a lexus, but the ct200h is one of the most efficient gasoline only powered cars.
Fuel Economy
It ties for 6 with the prius v, fusion hybrid, and honda insight. We have prius liftback and prius c @50, accord hybrid @47, civic and jetta hybrid @ 45, Compact certainly does not have and advantage in anything but price over midsize on that list.

That makes the gen I volt, even on the current grid in the lowest 2% in terms of ghg. Of course the volt plugs into a cleaner grid than the average one ;-) as does the prius phv, and the next generation of both will be lower.

huh. Of course people hold gm's past against the volt. If toyota sold the volt and promoted it instead of hydrogen, sales would be much higher. The gen II is on a brand new platform. Its a shared platform, but so is the gen IV prius. Sharing the platform lowers cost.

End of 2010 gen I, end of 2015 gen II, its on a 5 year cycle. Prius was shooting for a 5 year cycle also, but ran into problems aking it 6.5 years. I think the 5 year cycle is good. They had some fairly easy to fix things that couldn't make the launch.

Here are details of the new psd. GM claims they patentded some of trws design in 1995. Toyota did this in the US in 1997. Still you know the lawyers were heavily involved so that the pds did not violate the toyota and ford patents. IMHO if wagoner hadn't been such an idiot he would have licensed them in 2005. It would have cost much less than 2 mode;-)

Anyway here is the new lawyer approved layout. It has 2 planetary gears like the gen III prius, mga and mgb instead of mg1 and mg 2, and they are hooked up differently and include 3 clutches.
Gen 2 Volt Transmission Operating Modes Explained
CS1 looks very much like the prius, CS2 looks like the accord hybrid, CS3 is a lot like the prius, but mgb(2) is on a variable ratio too.

So Toyoa should stop making excuses and bring out a better phev. I think thier is room in the market for blended and blended phevs and bevs.

 

No interest in good business choices is common on forums.

Balance of priorities its not exciting and not rewarding to discuss.

 

YES because the excuse the grid isn't clean enough for plug-ins so we won't sell them where they are can possibly produce more ghg this year than the lowest 1 percentile of ghg of gasoline only cleaner cars is a good business reason.

I see on balance that is an excuse. I supose you can give me a business reason to make excuses like that. Perhaps a small percentage of the public with believe you. BUt it stil is an excuse. So is the idea that they don't want to take the subsidiey. They take plenty of subsidies, I think more than any other car company in the world..

Legitamate business reason for toyota to not sell prius phv in texas, they want to abandon the car and either kill it or replace it with something much better.
I hope it is that they want to make somehting much better than the current phv, but I don't see many signs of that. Still that is my hope.

Tell me again why you commented on my post.

 

Any evidence that they are losing money on each one sold? The PPI is about $5000 more than a Prius III. The lithium pack should cost them about $2250 to $2500 today. It could have been around $4000 at the start. Unless the Prius III is losing money, I don't see how Toyota is losing money on the plugin model.

Factoring in R&D costs likely had the PPI losing money in the beginning. Being an add on to an existing model without major changes to the existing infrastructure, the PPI's R&D costs should have been substantially less than those for a whole new car like the Volt and Leaf. These are also costs that have already been paid. Not an ongoing expense. Sell more PPI's and the R&D cost per car drops.

 

Everyone loves to hate the 2-mode design but there's really nothing wrong with it. There is no aspect of the design which would make it inherently that much more expensive than the new Malibu/Volt transmission other than an additional planetary gear set (3 vs 2) and rare earth metals which have been largely removed in the new transmission. The real problem with the 2-mode was that it was targeted at low-volume vehicle platforms which had a customer base that didn't care about hybrids or were actively deranged against them. Low volume meant high component manufacturing cost. This was a marketing insight failure.

The original 2-mode design was focused on providing efficient high torque and power output for supporting large vehicles like buses and short-haul trucks in 2003 and then it was scaled down and introduced for towing-capable SUVs and pickups in 2008. GM's Allison Transmission division (since spun-off) still supplies 2-mode transmissions where they are used in the highest volume selling and most reliable hybrid transit bus designs up through today.

Removing the 3rd planetary gear set essentially reduced the 4 fixed gear ratios available in the 2-mode to just 1 fixed gear mode in the new Malibu/Volt transmission.

Both the 2-mode and the new transmission use an "input split" eCVT mode for city driving and a different "compound split" eCVT mode for highway driving. The "input split" eCVT mode is effectively the same as the eCVT that is used at all speeds in the Toyota and Ford hybrid transmissions. The "compound-split" mode allows more power to flow mechanically from the engine to the wheels at highway speeds.

Even though the new transmission has very similar basic operating modes as the 2-mode design the internal gearing connection details are different.

The new transmission also has a unique new dual motor mode that allows both motors to be used together but at somewhat different gearing ratios to the wheels. The Volt uses this mode for fast acceleration or high torque output at city speeds during EV operation. The Volt pack can put out 120 kW so it can drive the smaller 48 kW motor and the larger 87 kW motor together. The Malibu's typical 1.5 kWh non-plugin hybrid battery pack cannot put out enough power to make dual motor mode useful.

GM has said the Malibu hybrid transmission is only slightly different from the new Volt transmission but they haven't given any details yet on the differences. It's not clear that they really need to make any changes at all but here are some possible tweaks:

1. Slight changes to the motor windings to adjust power output levels. Perhaps the bigger motor (MG B) could be reduced somewhat but the Volt windings are already pretty close to what the Malibu needs and are not too different from the motor power ratings in the Camry hybrid or Ford Fusion hybrid transmissions.

2. Tweak some gear tooth ratios to optimize for the characteristics of the 1.8L Malibu engine vs the 1.5L Volt engine.

3. Remove the one-way clutch from the ring gear of the first planetary gear set. It prevents the gas engine from spinning when the Volt is using dual motor mode which the Malibu won't be using. Removing this clutch is suggested in the new transmission's patent when it is used for non-plugin hybrid applications.

That is still the best and most-detailed article on the new GM hybrid transmission, regardless of the fact that I wrote it (along with a couple of other folks). The other articles out there are mostly based on some pretty pictures but few details released by GM in October of 2014.

GreenCarReports.com also came out with a good article a few days after ours that includes a few GM graphic slides that we didn't have permission to publish although we cover all the same information (other than some minor GCR article mistakes).

Their article is at:
2016 Chevrolet Volt Powertrain: How It Works In Electric, Hybrid Modes

Our article has a link to the underlying patent and has detailed planetary gear and clutch powerflow descriptions and illustrations that GCR doesn't have. GM will release a new detailed paper with further details at the upcoming SAE convention in mid-April.

 

There is a strategic Toyota decision at the heart of the PiP. It was brought out as Toyota's first car model using electricity as a fuel if we discount CA required compliance vehicles. It now looks like Toyota decided the PiP would be the last car model using electricity as fuel. The only reason to keep making it looks to satisfy the Toyota base wanting to have a Toyota EV...which looks to be past vehicles instead of future vehicles. Do I really want to finance a company going in the opposite direction I'm going?