2021 or 2022 Prius Prime will have better battery config

Discussion in 'Prime Main Forum (2017-Current)' started by Blue-Adept, Jan 20, 2019.

  1. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Um, Tesla.
    Looks like VW with the resources they are applying to plug ins now. Ford should have a presence, but they aren't resource rich, which is what held the hybrid programs back in the past. I don't care for Renault's battery leasing, nor the Leaf's design, but they have been steadily growing on the BEV front.

    Toyota leads in number of hybrids, but hybrids truly aren't alternative fuel cars. They use the same fuel, with all its issues, as any other ICE car. They reduce the amount of that fuel used. They could have a plug installed, and even a BEV, but Toyota isn't showing much interest in that.
    • They were reluctant to bring out the PiP. Customers and the growing PHEV conversion market pressured them.
    • The Prime had improvements, but the battery placement is evidence that they take development seriously. Then hybrids were going to count for less with meeting CARB's ZEV program. They needed a plug in for those credits after the Mirai did as poorly as it did.
    • The recent Rav4 EV was farmed out to Tesla. Toyota was planning on treating their Rav4 EV just like GM treated the EV1.
    • The iQ EV was cancelled before going on sale because it's design was based on decades old thinking on what BEV would sell, and not on what customers are saying they wanted in a BEV.
    • The only BEVs they have now are for China only, and they only exist because of China's EV policy.
    • TNGA is an ICE platform. It works for hybrids, because designers got better at placing the battery. Toyota is not the only one that has improved in that regard; others had hybrids with the battery under the rear seat as soon as Toyota did. We see that the Prime is packaged no better than other PHEVs built on ICE models. I suspect Subaru is doing the heavy lifting on their upcoming BEV platform.
    So Toyota leads in hybrid numbers. They are number one car company in the world based on car numbers, but they constantly swap positions with VW in that title in the past. It is leading as in a race. But that isn't the same as leadership in guiding to something better.

    Toyota has the expertise and resources to be that leader, but they are looking like the US car makers did when gas prices spiked in 2008. Ford and GM had desirable, efficient car models available in other markets. Getting those models to US dealers in time to help wasn't going to happen. Plug ins are starting to take off. While Toyota will continue to offer more hybrids, they apparently aren't making the investments to meet the shifting market.
     
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  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    we'll have to agree to disagree. tesla is leading bevs, dumb is leading criminals

    ford = zip

    chrysler = zip

    gm = bolt

    you asked me to define offerings, but you don't want to accept my definition
     
    #42 bisco, Aug 18, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2019
  3. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    VW are cheating crooks, but they are investing heavily into plug ins, with 3 models already available in the US. They are the second car manufacturer with a dedicated BEV platform. The first model on that platform is already in production, with its unveiling scheduled for some time next month. There is already several thousand pre-orders for it. Pre-series production of VW's ID.3 has taken off - electrive.com

    The Fusion Energi is still production, and now has an EV range of 26 miles. The 2020MY Escape and Aviator will have a PHEV option in addition to hybrid options. We'll likely see a hybrid F150 before a hybrid Tundra.

    What the hell is @hill's wife driving then? It ain't a plug in Sienna. FCA has been resistant to hybrids and plug ins, but that is starting to change. The base engine on the Ram 1500 has a mild hybrid system, and it is optional on the V8. They aren't really in the running at this point.

    I think GM has more plug in models available in China than Toyota. I expect that will be their primary focus for plug ins for now. The fact that they are losing the federal tax credit says they are willing to sell plug ins in the US. The Volt suffered from a changing market place. Ignoring that fact while discussing its cancellation is dishonest. The Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly plant where was built was closed. The CT6 and Impala were also built there. They were also cancelled.

    I agreed Toyota has the lead in hybrids. I just disagree that selling the most of something is a poor metric on its own. GM was the biggest car maker for years. Did that also make them the leader in technology and customer service? VW surpassed Toyota at times while cheating, they were still the leader those years. Toyota is leader with hybrids, but they don't appear to be preparing for after.

    You seem to treat any news from anybody but Toyota as vaporware. Physical factories aren't vaporware. Reviewers driving cars aren't vaporware. Announcing new EVs and a BEV platform with obvious computer mock ups of cars is. Guess who is doing what.
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    not at all, but we're arguing two different things. i'm following the thread, and you're on a tangent of plug ins.
     
  5. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Um, the thread is about the Prius Prime, a plug in.;)

    This tangent started with this line.
    jbcumming is clearly isn't talking about leadership in sales and market growth, as John wanted to shift too.

    The Prius came out over 20 years ago as the first hybrid car to market. The power-split hybrid system at its heart is no longer new technology. Toyota has done a great job with it, but when it comes to plug ins, they are reacting, not leading. HSD can make a good core to a PHEV. We see it in the Prime, which also shows us that Toyota still isn't thinking about making a plug in car, but an ICE car with a plug. The Energis came out in 2013(IIRC), and the Prime's overall packaging isn't any better.

    A repackaged battery in the Prime before the next redesign will be a sign that they are taking plug ins seriously, and lessen my concerns about a Rav4 Prime.
     
    #45 Trollbait, Aug 18, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2019
  6. a_gray_prius

    a_gray_prius Rare Non-Old-Blowhard Priuschat Member

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    Holy hell is that an terrible chart. I would have gotten roasted presenting that even in our informal lab meetings (back in the day). I have no idea what each bar corresponds to on that x-axis.

    The posted data is also W-T-F-inducing: who actually drives 1000 miles in one day (if you're not Alex Roy)? That is literally above the limit for CDL drivers assuming they drive the 15-hour daily maximum at an average speed of 70mph (that means even with a driver switch, that 0mph time period has to be matched by an equal 140mph time period).
     
  7. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    As someone who is accustomed to seeing graphs with overlaid Probability density function (or Probability distribution function) and Cumulative distribution function plots, this chart and axis labeling are crystal clear to me.
    Who said anything about CDLs drivers? These are privately owned vehicles covering a very large sample size, more than 300 vehicle-years, and not necessarily with just solo drivers.

    For me, 1000 miles in a day would be absolute lunacy, even on a driver rotation plan. But that doesn't mean nobody has done it. For this chart, all it takes is one vehicle doing it just once.

    Take a look at what one of one of our very own PriusChat members is planning: Need 5200 Mile Road Trip Advice | PriusChat
     
    #47 fuzzy1, Aug 19, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2019
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  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    agreed, but his post is open to interpretation, because he was so very vague.

    but let's talk plug ins: july 2019 from inside ev's

    model 3: 13,459

    prime: 2,950

    model x: 1,225

    bolt: 985

    model s: 975

    leaf: 938

    clarity: 800

    pacifica: 385

    niro: 325

    i-3: 303

    other than tesla, i don't hear any hooves. and while tesla has taken some of toyota/lexus sales

    i don't see them as the focus of jb's post, or john's reply
     
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  9. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    As I've said, sales is just one metric, but lets stick with it.
    Toyota Motor North America Reports July 2019 Sales - Toyota USA Newsroom
    Toyota sold 26,752 hybrids in July, including the Prime and Lexus, minus the Mirai. 14 different models.
    No single model bested the Model 3. The Rav4h came closest, but was still 2926 less. To July for this year, the Rav4h hasn't reached half of the Model 3's sales.
    Total plug in sales for July were 27,470. The Niro, Ioniq, and Insight will add about 7000 to the hybrid number. Finding the data for hybrid versions of other models is no longer easy.

    In Europe, hybrid sales have grown, but plug in sales are growing faster.
    First quarter of the year, hybrid sales grew 32.9%, from 144,529 to 192,087. Plug ins did 41.2% with 89,872 to 126,885.
    2019 (Q1) Europe: Electric and Plug-In Hybrid Car Sales per EU and EFTA Country - Car Sales Statistics
     
  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    as i said, i don't think jb was referring to tesla. but if you are saying toyota is second to them in advancing tech, i can accept that
     
  11. Prius Maximus

    Prius Maximus Senior Member

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    In my mind, tech isn't just HV vs PHEV vs BEV. It's android auto/car play (connectivity), auto windows on all doors, keyless entry stuff, HUDs, DRCC, LKA, all that safety and high tech stuff. Prius was one of the first with keyless entry/start. What does prius have now that most other cars don't? That's the innovation I'm looking for. That's what Prius was marketed with. "To go before," to be the first. Now they're just the first to make the most ugly vehicle they can, with the shortest usable battery range. Don't design for average, design for average plus a little extra.

    Come on, Toyota, become the leader again. Get new tech out there (including BEVs). Work with USDOT to get laser matrix headlights approved. Give us heat reflective paint. Give us cool stuff nobody else has. And give us a truly good looking prius for a change. Look at a challenger and then look at a prius. It's like comparing Raquel Welch to Phyllis Diller.
     
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  12. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    I don't think so either. What I'm saying, and think @jbcumming is, is that Toyota isn't paying the plug in market heed. We both think their hydrogen focus is a mistake.

    Tesla is the obvious example for growing popularity of plug ins, but they aren't the only company selling them. All the plug in growth in Europe wasn't just because of them.
    [​IMG]

    Leaf sales for Europe jumped 130% in 2018. They sold over 20k more than in their best previous year.
    Nissan Leaf European sales figures

    This is the worldwide trend for plug ins.
    [​IMG]
    A Year In Review: The World Electric Vehicle Market | CleanTechnica

    That is the hooves jb was talking about.
     
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  13. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    agreed. but if you're a us buyer outside of cali, i don't hear any hooves. prime rules the roost currently, and what hooves is he talking about? what is his complaint? who is making a better phew or has more offerings that concern him?
    cali just pulled the clarity plug, hunday/kia are okay but nothing special.

    is he talking about all the vaporware claims we may or may not see in the future?

    i don't consider that leading the way, until it is
     
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  14. farmecologist

    farmecologist Senior Member

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    I'm getting lost in the debate here....isn't this supposed to be about battery packaging? (n)

    As far as I'm concerned, the battery packaging of the Prime isn't the greatest. The trunk 'floor bump' that is 3" or so above the liftgate isn't a great look (in my opinion, of course, :D). Plus, I heard rumor that there is a spare tire void *under* the batteries? That seems to tell me that there certainly is room for a battery redesign/repackage to lower the trunk floor.

    Plus, this debate has already been done here previously :

    PRIME TRUNK SPACE | PriusChat

    Edit : And here is my response to that thread...imagine that!
    PRIME TRUNK SPACE | Page 12 | PriusChat
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The US is not the world. In fact, the US is poor example if you want to argue how well hybrids are doing. It is also a poor place to push plug ins if it isn't your home market, and don't have battery supplies lined up. If Toyota cares about sales in Europe and China, they should be concerned with the plug in growth there, and that growth is mostly BEVs. The Outlander PHEV is consistantly in the top 5 sales there. Except for whatever i3 REx's are sold, it is the only PHEV in the group. The Prime/Prius PHEV doesn't even to seem to reach the top 20 plug ins sold in Europe.
    EV Sales: Europe

    Up to July of this year, the Prime has sold 11,555 in the US. The Model X moved 10,225, and the Bolt 9,266, in that time frame. Two models not receiving the entire tax credit. The Clarity PHEV sold 7,343, and Honda has been limiting shipments outside ZEV states long before the official announcement of pulling them back; it seems no non-ZEV state got a 2019. The Prime's roost ruling is precarious here.

    Sucks about Honda's decision with the Clarity. It also sucked when Toyota didn't go nationwide with the PiP. We don't know what all went into that decision. My understanding is that the Clarity was a stop gap. Honda rushed it out to compete with the Mirai, and the FCEV version didn't even receive the benefit of GM's FCEV knowledge. You can order a Clarity if you really want one.

    Hyundai/Kia have 4 PHEVs and 3 BEVs available in the US. Three of those 7 are SUVs. They have battery supply constraints; the Ioniq hybrid had delays for that reason. So they don't have sales, but they do have a very big edge in offerings for the plug in market. Remember, Toyota offering more hybrid models is the only reason they are keeping the hybrid crown, and it takes time to bring new models to market.

    Which of these BEV platforms are vaporware?
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    That rumor is true, I found the missing 4" (vertical) in the trunk. It is below the battery. | PriusChat

    If Toyota is repacking the battery to free up cargo space, and they don't wait until the redesign to use it, then I'll take it as a good sign.
     
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  16. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    no idea what they are, but until they're on dealer lots, that's what i call them.

    i don't see anything in your arguments indicating that toyota isn't leading the way.
     
  17. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    I guess we'll know in 2025, which is supposedly the year Toyota launches the onslaught of PHEV/BEVs.

    The sad thing is that the next gen Prius/Prime development would've already started so does that mean the Prius/Prime gets left behind again with "old" technology while the other models get the benefit of the 2025 timeline of development?

    Delaying the Prius/Prime means 8-9 years for this cycle, that's way too long. The only way I see this is if the Prius is launched as a Prime first then the Prius BEV launches in 2025.

    Also, will the Prius remain the Prius or will it disappear and be called the Prius Prime for the PHV version?
     
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  18. farmecologist

    farmecologist Senior Member

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    I've always thought it would be a good idea for Toyota to make plugin functionality standard on the next gen Prius. Might be a way to 'differentiate' it a bit. Seems to me they should ditch the 'Prime' label and just call it 'Prius'...but either way would work for me. (y)
     
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  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i wonder if there is wrangling in toyota corporate offices over the future, and what path to actually go down
     
  20. jb in NE

    jb in NE Senior Member

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    Yes. This is common in all companies when they are planning products that will be in the market years after they start the planning. It's a big risk to invest billions on a product with long lead times.
     
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