Earth Warmer than Today, Much of Past 10,000 Years

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by mojo, Mar 9, 2017.

  1. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    2 plays a part in the ice ages, but 8 and 10 had a role, along with volcanism.

    Oh, the first photosynthesizers weren't plants, but cyanbacteria. As someone that has had numerous aquariums through the ages, they aren't usually slimy, but hairy, with a grip on the substrate, including glass, that is as tenacious as that last rusty bolt that doesn't give it up until the last of the sunlight is gone.:mad:
     
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Thread title says earth implying whole earth, but here we often consider high-latitude ice cores.

    Recently this:

    High Arctic Holocene temperature record from the Agassiz ice cap and Greenland ice sheet evolution

    Paywalled, but you know what to do about that. Excerpt:

    “We present a revised and extended high Arctic air temperature reconstruction from a single proxy that spans the past ∼12,000 y (up to 2009 CE). Our reconstruction from the Agassiz ice cap (Ellesmere Island, Canada) indicates an earlier and warmer Holocene thermal maximum with early Holocene temperatures that are 4–5 °C warmer compared with a previous reconstruction, and regularly exceed contemporary values for a period of ∼3,000 y. Our results show that air temperatures in this region are now at their warmest in the past 6,800–7,800 y, and that the recent rate of temperature change is unprecedented over the entire Holocene.”

    As often the case, something for all points of view. "recent rate of temperature change is unprecedented" does stand out though. Not a new concept but perhaps here more convincingly demonstrated than before.
     
  3. Paranormal Rob

    Paranormal Rob Active Member

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  4. Paranormal Rob

    Paranormal Rob Active Member

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  5. Paranormal Rob

    Paranormal Rob Active Member

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  6. Paranormal Rob

    Paranormal Rob Active Member

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  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Allow me to post a slightly longer quote from Guardian:

    "Climatologists who have looked again at the possibility of major climate change in and around the Atlantic Ocean, a persistent puzzle to researchers, now say there is an almost 50% chance that a key area of the North Atlantic could cool suddenly and rapidly, within the space of a decade, before the end of this century."

    Along with one from the cited research article:

    "Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models’ varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification."

    The second quote, quite realistically, reflects that these models are all over the place. Five models show this collapse and 6 models do not. Nowhere do they extend that to an assertion of how likely the collapse actually is. Well that they do not, as it would imply that each model should be equally weighted. At some point in future this collapse will (or will) not happen and then we'd know how these models should be weighted (at most one is correct).

    Guardian writer Kirby is under no such limitation. He gets to say whatever he feels like. And his success is based on getting readers and clicks for The Guardian. If that seems to you like a 'follow the money' situation, I'd not immediately disagree.
     
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  8. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Where is the CO2 axis and why posted without a source?

    Why random images? What is the red box? How many years is in that box. And why does it show that the temperatures on the current peak already happened within the last few thousand years and were decreasing and that now the most current data, if you could zoom in to the last 100 years, shows the opposite is now happening? Scale is interesting, huh?

    Others see dead people.
     
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  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    It came from climate4you, and widely reposted where ... no, I shall not characterise* such places.

    Basically just general knowledge of recurrent glaciation, in this case from Vostok (Antarctica) ice core. I mean, what's the diff? If p-bob wants to say that current warming is nothing other than replay of the previous 4, why not let him? Then we have one of those teachable moments I like and everybody else just rolls their eyes...
     
  10. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    No one has denied warming in the past. The issue is the rapid increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The last time it went up this fast preceded the worst extinction event in this planet's history.
    There are several effects to having the CO2 amount go up. One is increased heat trapped in the atmosphere. This heat is melting glaciers. Glacial run off is colder than your tap water. When it hits the ocean, it can cool the surface temperatures. The problem with this happening in the Northern Atlantic is that it can disrupt the major currents. If the Gulf Stream doesn't make it to the UK, the pleasant climate there will turn to that of Alaska's.

    See, no one is calling for Global Warming to equally warm the planet all over, and some areas can see their average temperatures go down.

    You should follow your advice.
     
  11. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Greenland has had the greatest ice mass in history for the past 10 months.
    CO2 has strange effects (sarc ice mass obviously has nothing to do with CO2)none of which have been predicted by climate science.
    Theres no chance of your BS theory,melting affecting currents, when there is no melting. accumulatedsmb (1).png
     
  12. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Deja vu all over again.

    We have talked about this repeatedly. Mojo is lying yet again, seriously misrepresenting that chart.

    That chart is only the surface budget, not including edge losses (iceberg calving). Here is the actual total ice mass change:
    [​IMG]
    See:

    Total mass change: Polar Portal

    Or previous discussions here on PC:
    Future temperatures | Page 2 | PriusChat
    Polar Ice For 2016 | Page 3 | PriusChat
    Polar Ice for 2017 | Page 3 | PriusChat
     
    #52 fuzzy1, Jul 10, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2017
  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Theres no chance of your BS theory,melting affecting currents, when there is no [email protected]

    if harm is intended here, it could only be towards p-bob who linked to Guardian article. But all he claimed was lots of uncertainty. This seems a reasonable assessment of ocean dynamics models to me. And to mojo I m sure, Trouble is, he has lost track of whom and what to insult.

    Separately I suspect that Atlantic overturn is very robust. It seemed to have suffered from a glacial outburst flood, but not slower deglaciation in general (~20 kya). Current 2700 gigatons/decade of freshwater from Greenland, and a smaller flux from melting other grounded ice seems like not enough
     
  14. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    While on the topic of Greenland, I may as well post some Greenland pictures I snapped yesterday.

    aDSCN3653.JPG

    aDSCN3648.JPG

    aDSCN3645.JPG

    All shots have coastal sea ice, swirling around in clusters of various sizes. The top two also show coastal mountain ranges, in the background under the aircraft wing.

    Southeast coast of Greenland, July 9, 2017, approximately Lat 67.3 N, Long. 33.4 W.

    No argument value here, just curiosity. When flying over northern Canada, Greenland, and Iceland on personal travel in recent years, clouds often hid much of the view. But this was one of the better flights, I was able to see quite a bit. I love window seats.
     
    #54 fuzzy1, Jul 10, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2017
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  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Very nice through-the-window pix. Camera details?
     
  16. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Nikon Coolpix P7000, a 10Mpix advanced point-and-shoot type of about six years ago.

    And a rather dirty B777 window.
     
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Window dirt did not affect those shots. Greenland Summit Station is 72°36′ North, 38°25′ West. Did you pass over that? Your flight path is logged somewhere online, which I suppose you already know.
     
  18. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Thanks to relaxed policies, my flight paths are now mostly logged on my own devices. :cool::D

    This flight passed about 300 miles south of that station. I have passed much farther north in the past, according to inflight tracking displays, but usually with unfavorable seating or cloudcover.

    The dirty window is most obvious as out-of-focus darkened patches in the middle picture above. The worst spots were mostly ice crystals, but they were nucleating on dirt and grime.
     
  19. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Dude Grace is the problem.You are using fake data .Grace has been contradicted by different reliable methods on both poles.
    Anyone with sense will understand that Grace is faulty when evidence from a Nasa study and DMI both contradict it..
    When two reliable sources say Grace is wrong Id say the evidence is quite clear and overwhelming.
    But you keep spouting your flawed data because it confirms your bias.
    Prove Grace is more reliable than both Nasa and DMI.Your poker hand is a pair of deuces against two pair of Aces and Kiings.
    If you cant aknowledge this we will know you are the liar.
     
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    When two reliable sources say Grace is [email protected] Those indeed are what you ought to provide.Spare us poker metaphors dude. After having done so you'd look at (independent) laser altimetry flown over all Greenland, And local site dynamics, And your own misquoted @51.

    Concordance of all evidence is that Greenland is -ice, but only at or below 1 mm/yr in terms of sea level. Cannot imagine why mojo dude fights this unwinnable war.

    But you are up late tonight - hoping everything is OK there.

    Csatho et al 2014 laser altimetry of Greenland ice

    Csatho et al 2014 Greenland ice laser alt.png
     
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