SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Jan 26, 2020.

  1. Montgomery

    Montgomery Senior Member

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    I hate to ask this question out of fear of being verbally attacked, but its an honest question and nothing else. Because this is a virus, if the entire world locked itself up for a year, would this virus simply dissappear? I think every time we lock down, the viral spread slows down, but it doesn't seem to go away. Its like we are prolonging the life of this thing. Just a question not meant to mock those who have died, those who have gotten sick from it or those who want tighter lock downs. Just an honest question.
     
  2. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    not an expert, but the virus needs fresh meat, so i would say yes
     
  3. KennyGS

    KennyGS Senior Member

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    We need a vaccine.
     
  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    and effective treatment
     
  5. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    A complete world lockdown would cause billions of starvation deaths. Literally, the cure would be worse than the disease.

    Services essential for survival must continue. Stopping disease spread via essential workers is a big problem without sufficient solutions.
     
  6. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    I don't think it needs to be that long. If the entire world quarantined completely for two weeks, the virus would be gone. But is it doable? Don't think so.
     
  7. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    I think I'm seeing two weeks covering only to the 90-95th percentiles. Some outliers significantly longer, e.g. 19-24-27 days.

    In multi-person households, secondary infections may involve multiple sequential incubation periods.
     
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  8. ILuvMyPriusToo

    ILuvMyPriusToo Senior Member

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    People would have to follow instructions for that to have a chance of working. That's it right there.
     
  9. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    Rope a dope?
    .
     
  10. Montgomery

    Montgomery Senior Member

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    Ok. I follow that. But, doesn't that mean that those that have it in their system and have become immune, may pass it on to others who are not and it starts over? I'm just trying to figure this out and why this strategy hasn't been done for other similar viruses. I guess eventually all people's immune systems will start to keep it from becoming such a deadly thing. At the rate we are going, based on the population of the world, we can keep cycling through upticks every 2 months for years untill every location in the world has cycled through. Best case scenario is a possible vaccine. But even that, according to the media is either sometime next year, or, may not completely work. I am hopeful that a vaccine will come out and severely disrupt more spreading.
     
  11. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    The experience with the four known coronaviruses causing common colds (about 20% of common colds, there are other virus families too) is not encouraging. Immunities from those don't appear to last long, so the "until" portion of that sentence potentially becomes useless, if herd immunity never becomes fresh and strong enough.
     
    #2611 fuzzy1, Aug 19, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2020
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  12. Salamander_King

    Salamander_King Senior Member

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    Well, as @fuzzy1 pointed out, two weeks may not be long enough for completely eradicating the virus. But given time, the virus will run its own course and finish the infection life cycle within the host. If there is no other host to infect while the virus is viable, then the transmission and spreading will stop. This may take up to a month for some, but for most people in two weeks, either the person is dead or recovered. Either way, that person is no longer shedding virus to infect others. So, in theory, if there are absolutely no contacts between the infected and other potential hosts, the virus will disappear after a period of quarantine, and will not reappear again. It just is not a plausible solution, again as @fuzzy1 pointed out already.

    My guess is that even if we ever develop some form of vaccine or drug for COVID-19, the virus SARS-CoV-2 will likely not to be eradicated completely like what happened to smallpox. I think it will likely to evolve to more infectious but less lethal forms and becomes endemic among the population just like other coronaviruses that cause the common cold or influenza viruses that cause flu.
     
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  13. chronon

    chronon Active Member

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    would this be from a 'bill gates' proposal , and would it have a darpa nano-gel 'tatoo id' on it , a 'luciferase' biolluminated marker to indicated u have received your glorious savior in the poison needle ?
     
  14. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Sounds like it is time for a re-run, even if the 5G is missing this time:

    ==================================

    NPR: Anatomy Of A COVID-19 Conspiracy Theory

    "Conspiracy theories need just the right ingredients to take off within a population, and the COVID-19 pandemic has been a breeding ground for them. A Pew Research Center survey recently asked people if they had heard the theory that the COVID-19 outbreak was intentionally planned by people in power. Seventy-one percent of U.S. adults said they had. And a third of those respondents said it was "definitely" or "probably" true.

    One version of this theory goes something like this: The COVID-19 pandemic is part of a strategy conceived by global elites — such as Bill Gates — to roll out vaccinations with tracking chips that would later be activated by 5G, the technology used by cellular networks."

    "... Enough traction that more than 70 cellphone towers were set on fire in the United Kingdom in April and May because of their alleged link to the spread of the virus, ..."

    [/QUOTE]
     
  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    This strategy has been done before. Mexico did it for the 2009 swine flu in affected cities and states. 2009 swine flu pandemic in Mexico - Wikipedia They acted fast early on, and flu is a known agent, so it didn't spread far. The US was worried about it at the time though. So this isn't unusual.
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    In the USA, we have almost exhausted every other approach and are starting to do the right thing.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    No because there will always be isolated pockets that don't get the word:
    • doubling time (R=2) is ~10 days, duration is ~30 days
      • 1st day, one case
      • 10th day, two new cases plus one case
      • 20th day, four new cases plus three cases
      • 30th day, eight new cases plus seven cases
      • 40th day, 16 new cases plus 14 cases minus 1
      • 50th day, 32 new cases plus 30 cases minus 2
      • 60th day, 64 new cases plus 60 cases minus 4
      • 70th day, 128 new cases ...
      • 80th day, 256 new cases ...
      • 90th day, 512 new cases ...
    It is the nature of an exponentially increasing disease to double based on the duration of the "R" factor. The only mitigation is the reduction of recovered minus the dead. Initially, 5% mortality but it looks like the mortality rate is closer to 3%.

    The math is simple but the results are deadly.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  18. Montgomery

    Montgomery Senior Member

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    My point also. The entire world eventually has to be exposed, or a vaccine gets developed. Or both happens.
     
  19. Montgomery

    Montgomery Senior Member

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    I just can't see the entire world in synch, do what Mexico did.

    I agree. I just think this process will take close to a decade for it to pass through every human being on earth.
     
    #2619 Montgomery, Aug 20, 2020
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 2, 2020
  20. ChapmanF

    ChapmanF Senior Member

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    Exponential functions are sneaky that way. There was a longish period back in February and March when you could look at our US numbers and see them growing wider by one zero every seven to thirteen days, before we were making much concerted effort to change that.

    The world population's only got nine zeros.
     
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