The begining of the end of the Prius - Time

This is a work in progress to map out Chevy Cruze models versus Prius models. Starting with the EPA web site, Fuel Economy, I tried to map MSRP price range versus city and highway mileage. Although the EPA reports city and highway mileage, the MSRP values are often inaccurate. A work in progress, I'm starting to use Ebay to get price ranges. However, this first chart shows what I'm finding:

• EPA lists the same MSRP range for all Chevy Cruze models except the ECO
• Chevy lists a higher 'starting' MSRP for the Cruze 2.0, TurboD now shown in chart

What I'll try to do is use Ebay to get new car, low and high offerings for low mileage, new cars. These should be close to the current MSRP.

I'll also look at some way to show 'city' versus 'highway' MPG, the horizontal lines. The Prius have higher city over highway MPG compared to the Cruze. Although a work in progress, it shows why I am skeptical of the Cruse as a credible alternative to the Prius family.

Bob Wilson

 

The above will probably also apply to the gen2 Volt.

DBCassidy

 

Yeah; it is one of the "oldest tricks in the book," also called "bait and switch."

The media and conventional wisdom keeps on harping on the hybrid premium.

They lure them in with a cheap "bait" price on an ultra low cost stripped down model, ask the pigeon, How much can you afford in a "monthly payment" and then "switch" and upsell them to all of those "add on" options. Bu that time, he falsely perceived "hybrid premium" is nearly gone.

That's why s many Americans failed "arithmetic" in grade school.

 

I didn't read the prius numbers close enough, that is strange. Here is US news on a bottom Prius against a mid cruze.
Car Comparison | U.S. News Best Cars
Plug and chug the numbers and it is 11 years payback with $2 gas, 7.5 years with $3 gas. People are buying prii when they really want a trunk, but for those that think the sales are really for a hatch preference, I have included the fit. Prius cargo is bigger than the fits with seats up, fit's passenger space is bigger as is the cargo with back row of seats down.
Compare Side-by-Side

Look at the reviwer rankings of interior and performance and you see that prius needs to catch up in these areas. The gen IV may do this, but the car design is almost 6 years old. You simply are going to lose market share if you don't update for a long time. Add that to the lower prices of gasoline making it a worse value than it appeared in 2013, I'm suprised sales have not fallen further.

Not sure what the Irving(Dallas) earthquakes have to do with this. Many of us think they will be found to be caused by natural gas fracking practices, although exactly what needs to change is not known, other than to move fracking away from populated areas. The railroad comisioner, the guy with power to change regulations claims it has nothing to do with fracking. Lots of new monitoring equipment is being dispatched to see exactly what is going on. The oil shale find is the eagleford which is far from population centers. I don't think saudi or eagleford production would be effective and that is what is what is driving oil prices down.

 

Before this I've been squawking about hybrid math not making sense in states like VA with excessively high car taxes.
So the low gaso just makes it worse. But I think the Prii still selling here. Wish we had stats like CA every quarter.

Reasons for buying Prii still the same:
(1) Incredibly practical space use in a family car
(2) Very reliable, low maintencace car
(3) Low cost of ownership
(4) Efficient use of natural resources (fuel/metals/total picture)
(5) All the benefits of a gaso car (long drive range, heat, A/C, etc.)

If you look at CR (with a grain of salt I know) the fuel cost savings is a fairly minor component of the low cost of ownership. Depreciation is the big chunk, and Prii holds value well due to the list of attributes above.

 

If you look for that list CR and Car and Driver are pushing the honda fit. Car and driver was lukewarm about the update because fun to drive may have gone down but in terms of other value its hard to find a better one. Fit has 96 cu ft (fit) of passenger room versus 94 cu ft (prius), 36 mpg (cvt) versus 50 mpg, 0-60 8 seconds versus 9.8, etc. Interior of the fit is above the quality of the prius at least according to the reviewers, and price of the fit is lower as will be estimated depreciation. Smart key is even an option now on the fit, but you don't have to pay for it if you don't want to. You have a choice of a manual too, and many other things at lower costs.
2015 Honda Fit EX Test – Review – Car and Driver

As many have pointed out, as far as tech and environment go, most of these customers may be going plug-in instead of prius liftback, and with limited range and distribution of the prius phv many are switching brands if they want a plug in.

Still the prius greatly outsells the fit, americans don't really like hatchbacks that much. The prius really is leaking sales to 4 door sedans, that don't quite do as well on all the bullet points on your chart. Lower interior noise and secure locked cargo often are chosen over cargo space and fuel efficiency. That is why cars like the corrola, cruze, and camry greatly outsell the prius. The prius has done well keeping sales up. Some things looked dated in the gen III even when I bought mine over 5 years ago. They really need to get a good update out if Toyota wants the prius to gain back market share.

 

Prius owners are at the front of the line for the shortcomings: Summary of proposed improvements for future versions of Prius | PriusChat. After all, we were the first ones to make a Plug-In Prius, a tow bar, Google pioneered self-driving (i.e., ultimate accident avoiding,) optimized driving within the control laws, and adding 1 kW inverters, these are all owner initiatives:

But I still get ticked when lazy car writers 'cherry pick' their facts to make blatantly false claim about 'the hybrid premium' or 'payback interval:'

• compared to a Corolla
• compared to an Aveo
• compared to a Cruze
• compared to a <insert writers favorite ride>

The most obvious question is to ask them "What is the payback for any other premium option?" Furthermore, we've seen so many times where the stock items on a Prius are expen$ive options on the comparison vehicle. Now that gas prices are lower, these lazy writers 'dust off' these old articles and once again publish the same old nonsense.

When I was in college, I dated a woman journalism student who was built like a brick outhouse. She was more than fine. But one day the student newspaper had her article comparing prices in the Student Union store versus one of the early 'discount' stores. The problem was she had cherry picked items that were cheap in the store and totally neglected that students need more than pencils and note pads. My friends asked me 'what is wrong with Melanie' and I had no answer. Later, I found this selective reality extended into other aspects of our relationship and it ended. It is why even today I am sensitive to how some 'news' organizations are spoiled by letting their editorial bias attempt to 'spin' the facts (aka., any Rupert Murdoch owned operation.)

The Cruze comparison is new but as this posting points out,
http://priuschat.com/threads/whats-the-biggest-threat-to-our-environment.149284/page-5#post-2122745, if you are going to live in a fact based, reality, you have to pickup the challenge when nonsense criticisms are tossed out. That does not mean you'll change the author's point of view any more that lovely journalism student could change hers. Rather, it means you have decided to 'get off the bus' that has left the real-world.

Bob Wilson

 

I'd hate to think the only thing driving Prius sales is a temporary impulse to lessen the pain of filling the gas tank, every time gas prices go up.

There's a lot to be said for the satisfaction of not-wasting gasoline by accelerating a ton and a half of mostly metal, and then wasting more energy to slow it down. Using energy more efficiently and recapturing it with regeneration should make good sense to anyone, except perhaps those in the gasoline business.

When I had my Corolla, I thought I was saving a lot of money, but since I got my Prius, I'm using less than half the fuel. I've also gained more interior space and better ride comfort. I could never go back to wasting so much fuel again. For me it's a no-brainer.

 

Absolutely, and IMHO a lot of this downturn is about the prius taking much longer than 5 years on its cycle. Waiting for the gen IV as well as lower gas prices looks like another bad year for the liftback.

The key car that consumer reports and car and driver compare it to is the honda fit, which now is built in north america and has a cvt 36 mpg option (33 cty, 41 hwy). Still most compare the prius to non-hatches. Pricewise you need to adapt but the corolla and cruze have roughly the same passenger room, and have grown sales while the prius has lost them. The corolla was a bad comparison in 2005, but the new one seems be being sold by the toyota dealers instead of the prius. When I went to dealers to buy my prius, they tried to sell me a camry instead, so this is partially dealer behavior.

We are in a sad echo chamber with news tailoring stories to their viewers, and viewers igonring other news choices.

One way to write the story would be prius sales only drop 13% despite low gas prices lack of updates, and americans preference for four door midsize sedans over hatchbacks. Still I expect more bleeding until that gen IV comes out unless toyota cuts prices as car makers often do for old designs. But with prius customers perhaps staying in the toyota brand, there is not a financial incentive to sell prii over corollas, after all corollas are produced in a new low cost plant in mississippi while the prius is built with expensive electricity and higher labor and must be shipped. I think the delay of new phv out until the end of 2016 is going to hurt the prius brand as a tech leader.

 

There is no denying that there is a premium. Just look at the Camry hybrid. It convienently comes in LE, SE, and XLE trim. There are one to two feature differences that with Toyota's package scheme makes pinning down an exact figure hard, but calling it $3000 is fair. The simple cost pay back that is mostly seen just take into account the addition ownership cost savings that the hybrid system provide in ownership, depreciation, and possibly insurance.

Without a conventional version for comparison, it has always been hard to pin down the hybrid price for the Prius. Which made it easy for critics to pull unfavorable numbers. We all cried foul of using the Corolla back in 2005 for such. Then the Corolla was still a compact to the Prius' midsize. Well, the new Corolla, and nearly all its competitors like the Cruze, got big. The gen3 Prius actually avoided the worse of the remodel bloat. It has the same cabin space as the Cruze, and less than the Corolla. The greater cargo space is a hatchback to sedan comparison with pluses and minuses for both. I wish the Corolla/Cruze wagon/hatch were available in the US, but the majority of my countrymen prefer sedans.

So when these Prius to Corolla comparisons show up now, we can't just treat it with the same response as we did nearly 10 years ago.

The increased standard features of the Prius and other hybrids was help with initial sales by added perceived value beyond the improved fuel economy and emissions. They also let the manufacturer subsidize the hybrid cost to the buyer with their profits from the feature. The cost to Toyota for SKS is going to be the same whether it is on a Prius or a Corolla. The amount of profit it nets on the car is just different.

The trim above about base likely has all the features now considered needed by most. Or at least the ones actually seen as making a sacrifice when getting the base trim instead. The Prius likely still has some more features that will quickly erode the price difference when equipped on the Cruze/Corolla. How many of the desirable extras are available alone? How many only in a package? The extra features of a package might be nice, and a person might come to love them, but it is still money the buyer didn't really want to spend. The desirable feature is just a lure to increase profits buy selling the unwanted stuff.

If the Prius has a feature not available on the Corolla/Cruze, then it becomes a lure to get into a Prius. Of course, if you decided on a Prius for any other reason, then it becomes icing.

In short, don't get hung up on a feature to feature comparison for these counters. The close enough models is plenty to illustrate the errors of a reported comparison. Doing so with a quick counter to the Business week conclusion brings their 28 year period down to 10 years.

 

Maybe we need to get out of the echo-chamber a bit more.

 

Well I'm not comparing the regular Camry to the Hybrid Camry...I'm comparing a standard Prius to other hatch-backs. And I still say there IS far less a "Hybrid Premium" when comparing the Prius Two to most upscale hatch backs.

Sure you can get a much cheaper hatch back, if you buy a KIA Rio or Nissan Versa Note. But if you are looking at Mazda 3's, or Volkswagen Golfs, or Honda Fits, or even Ford Focus and Fiesta, once you start adding what those companies charge for as extra's that just come standard on The Prius, such as keyless entry, and push button start, $18,000-$19,000 can and WILL jump to $20,000+ easy.

This is not conjecture, it's experience. I bought a Honda Fit. In which I paid more, for the "Sport" model. This was to have keyless entry and cruise control. I then had to pay for a cargo cover, and at that time even a center console. All these things are standard on a regular Prius.

And of course when making a comparison, I'm going to compare feature to feature...that's how comparisons are made.

Just go to almost any of the before mentioned web sites. They have the fabled "Build Your Vehicle" feature. While "entry" price may be cheaper, some of those manufacturers actually charge you near $1000 if you choose a "automatic" over a "manual" transmission.

Many of the hatch back offerings have become nicer and more refined. In 2010, I couldn't get push button start or a SKS entry on Honda Fit. Today in 2015 I can,- but if I do....it's going to put the Honda Fit in the 20,000+ range. More expensive than an entry level Prius c, and very near what one can buy a standard Prius two.

I'm not saying you're NOT paying for hybrid technology when buying a hybrid. I am saying, if comparing upscale hatch-backs to Prius two? That "Hybrid Premium" is near non-existent.

 

I plan to keep my Prius for 15+ years. For me, if there is a $3,000 hybrid premium, it is negligible over that period.

By the 15th year, does anyone think that gasoline will cost $2 a gallon, or even the inflationary equivalent? I don't think so...

I can remember during Y2K in 2000, when I bought gasoline at 79 cents a gallon. I would have gladly paid $6,000 more, then, for a Prius. I am sure that over that period, I would have gotten the $6,000 back and a lot more.

 

+1

Car Comparison | U.S. News Best Cars

Yep the camry hybrid of the same trim appears to cost buyers $3700 more. For that you get not only get a boost of fuel economy from 28mpg to 41 mpg, but you get engine off when car is stopped, and better acceleration 0-60 times drop from 7.8 to 7.3 seconds (car and driving). A smaller trunk is the only way the hybrid is a worse car. Let's say that extra acceleration and quiet is worth $1000, that leaves a $2700 hybrid premium for fuel savings. That means payback in about 8 years with $2 if you like the camry and are willing to pay more for acceleration and quiet. Much faster payback if you use higher gas prices. The camry and fusion hybrids are both fairly good values for american tastes, and if the premium decreases they will continue taking a bigger chunk. The prius liftback though sold 122K versus 75K combined for these two midsized hybrids.

Compare Side-by-Side

There was a hatch version of the corolla, the matrix but toyota chose to drop it. I don't think it competed well with the fit. This year the fit is built in north america, allowing honda to raise content without raising the price much (better value). One part of the hybrid premium for some american buyers is the hatch when they want a trunk. I don't know if the prius has a higher hybrid premium than the camry or not, but I would guess it is more. It all depends on what you really want and if you are happy with prius acceleration, handling, and materials.

The fit has more passenger room and in Ex cvt ($18,360) trim includes things the prius II trim does not. Rear camera, 16" alloy rims, moon roof, lane watch and includes things like smart key to bring it up to prius standard features. You can't get the tech package feature of radar cruise control though. It is in an optional package for the camry though for $5090 which includes moon roof, navigation, upgraded stereo, etc. If you want that radar or laser cruise control its going to cost you. Subaru and mazda are the only companies that can get you out the door with this safety feature for less than $30k, so its not a bad deal to upgrade to 5 trim to get it on the prius, still that is a big premium.

I hope the next gen closes the premium gap ;-)

 

WRT to today's low oil prices: Something that is little reported is how the lower oil prices are affecting the new Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) - who threaten to take over the middle east region and the state of Saudi Arabia. ISIS was funding their religious war with money generated with oil from captured oil fields. The revenue from the captured oil fields was able to initially fund for both "guns" and "butter" for the new Islamic State. To counter ISIS growth, western/developed countries officially banned the sale of oil from ISIS as contraband. However, ISIS was still able to sell their captured oil despite the ban and continued to expand. Months later, Saudi Arabia starts to lower the price of oil by increasing oil productions. The lower oil prices means that ISIS revenue from captured oil fields are cut in half - and reports indicates that ISIS is that much poorer and weaker because of it. When ISIS is no more, it is likely Saudi Arabia will stop selling cheap oil and gasoline prices will go up once more. However, I'm not worried - long before oil tops $8/ gallon - gas guzzling drivers will be pounding on the door of government for relief of some sort.

WRT to the Prius: There a few minor design details I don't care for --but overall the Prius is a good reliable car for someone who doesn't have race car driver reflexes. One of the key factor that influenced me to buy the Prius over its competitors was the community behind it - like the people on PriusChat -- who have been very helpful.

 

I wasn't speaking about an individual buying a car. Yes, they will count the cost of a feature if it is a must for them in the comparison. You wanted SKS enough that you were willing to pay for it as an option. I had SKS on my 2005. It's a nice feature, but wasn't great enough for me to pay extra for or select a particular over. Whether to count an individual feature is up to the individual

I am speaking about a comparison to use when countering a claim like in the OP, whether due to lack of logic skills of outright FUD. A specifically equipped car isn't needed to show the error. Getting the feature list close is good enough. in part because your time is too precious to spend too much on the subject, but mostly it is impossible to get a direct feature to feature list between models. I looked at the Camry because a feature comparison should be straight forward. The XLE and hybrid XLE started off closest. The XLE was missing SKS, but could get it as part of a package. Which includes navigation. Navigation for the hybrid comes in a different package for it that includes the moon roof, and so on. That was two trims of the same model. Different models and makes won't make it easier.

So I'm saying if you feel the need to counter the FUD, you really don't need to sweat the small stuff. Whether or not the Cruze you use is equipped with the SKS equivalent isn't going to make or break your point when they are comparing a low mid trim one to a Prius Plug In.

To the buyer. Which is great for them for that individual car purchase. Not long term if those extra standard features aren't enough to help carry hybrid model to self support. It has worked out for Toyota. It didn't for GM's two-mode system. there was no standard or even extended cab version of the pick up hybrid. It needed the crew cab for the additional profits to counter the hybrid premium, but that wasn't enough for the pricy system.

Forgot about the Matrix, and I used to own one.

I say straight up production cost of the HSD should be less for the Prius. It uses a smaller battery and ICE. Some components are shared with other other models like the CT200h and that new Esquire minivan. then the Camry hybrid has some cost benefit for being assembled in the US. Other considerations, such as performance wanting a trunk over the hatch, start becoming intangibles for hybrid premium.

 

Get a Consumer Reports car magazine.

My trip to Piercey Toyota to get a tire repaired showed why truck and SUV sales are up: They had Highlander, Tacomas, Rav4 all lined up on the display sidewalk.

I think sales likes to sell trucks and SUVs cause they make more money doing so.

 

Like this?: How manufacturers compare

And this?:
"... and the trouble-prone FR-S sports car, which was the least reliable Toyota product. That car has a clone, the Subaru BRZ, which was the only Subaru with below-average reliability."

I'm still trying to find the graph I remember showing brand reliability vs. age.

 

Hmm. I think you have it backwards.
They failed math in grade school...and then they were taken advantage of when they went to buy a car. I haven't heard of too many grade-schoolers who were car buyers.

Mike